Hansa Rostock vs Ulm: match statistics
Hansa Rostock vs Ulm: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hansa Rostock played Ulm in 3. Liga (Germany). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 5:1.
Current form
Hansa Rostock: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Ulm: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hansa Rostock scores 1.78 and concedes 1.13 goals per match. Ulm scores 1.28 and concedes 1.97. League average: 3.13 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hansa Rostock 53%, Ulm 72%. Over 2.5: Hansa Rostock 63%, Ulm 66%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
xG, shots and style
Hansa Rostock has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.43. Hansa Rostock: 14.8 shots per match, Ulm: 11.8.
Match halves
Hansa Rostock: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.91. Ulm: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Hansa Rostock: 76-90+ (13 goals). Ulm: 76-90+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
3. Liga: 3.13 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 63%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Hansa Rostock to win: the hosts sit 5th in the table versus Ulm’s 17th and have 15 wins this season compared to Ulm’s 8, giving them a clear sporting edge. Hansa have scored 57 goals this season and 10 in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.81 goals at home, while Ulm averages 1.31 goals away and has only 6 goals in the last 5 fixtures; additionally Hansa record an average xG of 2.02 at home versus Ulm’s 1.42 xG, meaning they create better chances. In quality-of-chances metrics the hosts average 6.06 shots on target and 17.13 shots overall per game, while Ulm manage only 3.56 on target and 12.25 total, with a similar conversion rate of 11%. Defensively the gap is even more pronounced: Ulm have conceded 63 goals this season (2.00 away) versus Hansa’s 36 (1.44 at home) and have a higher xG against (1.63 vs 1.29), so Hansa hold advantages in chance creation and defensive stability. Considering form (Hansa 2.0 pts in the last 5 matches vs Ulm 1.6), superior xG and Ulm’s markedly worse defense, I predict a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS indicators strongly favour both teams scoring: Hansa has BTTS at 63% and Ulm at 81%, meaning in 63% and 81% of their matches both sides found the net. Both defenses are prone to concessions — Hansa concedes on average 1.94 goals per game, Ulm 2.00, with low clean sheet rates of only 19% and 13%. In terms of attacking chances, offensive xG stands at 1.44 (Hansa) and 1.42 (Ulm), yielding a combined xG ≈2.86, while xG against of 1.60 and 1.63 suggests a realistic chance of goals from both sides; the league average is 3.12 goals per game. In the last 5 matches Hansa averaged 2.0 goals (10 in 5), Ulm 1.2 goals (6), with average goals conceded 1.0 and 1.0 and recent BTTS at 60% vs 80%. Considering BTTS 63/81, low CS 19/13, combined xG ≈2.86 and league average 3.12, I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 78% vs 22% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
After combining attacking xG (Hansa 1.44, Ulm 1.42) with opponent defensive xG (Ulm 1.63, Hansa 1.60) I estimate expected goals of 1.54 for Hansa and 1.51 for Ulm, total 3.05. Seasonal metrics indicate a high goal potential: Over1.5 occurred in 69% of Hansa’s matches and 94% of Ulm’s, Over2.5 63%/69%, and the league averages 3.12 goals per match. A Poisson model with lambda=3.05 yields ~81% probability of more than 1.5 goals, ~59% for over 2.5 and ~37% for over 3.5, consistent with seasonal indicators. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Hansa scores on average 2.0 goals, Ulm 1.2, and Ulm has BTTS in 81% of games, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Based on this the best choice is Over 1.5 — the strongest value signal with an estimated ~81% probability.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Season-long statistics show Hansa led at the break in 25% of matches, drew at half-time in 31% and trailed in 44%, indicating that Ulm is more often in front at the end of the first half. Ulm has a high percentage of both-teams-to-score matches (81% vs 63% for Hansa) and very similar xG (1.42 for Ulm vs 1.44 for Hansa), so the visitors can score and have a realistic chance to maintain a lead. Second-half numbers also favour Ulm: the average goals in the second half for the away side is 2.06 versus 1.69 for the home team, and 88% of away matches feature at least one goal after the break (vs 69% for the hosts). In light of these figures the strongest signal is the 2/2 Half-Time/Full-Time scenario (Ulm leads at the break and wins), which therefore receives the highest probability.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hansa Rostock | Ulm | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hansa Rostock is 100% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Hansa Rostock · 1 pts / match - Ulm
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hansa Rostock is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.78 goals / match - Hansa Rostock · 1.28 goals / match - Ulm
Hansa Rostock is 74% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.13 goals / match - Hansa Rostock · 1.97 goals / match - Ulm
Hansa Rostock scores in 78% of matches (25 of 32 matches), while Ulm keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).
Ulm scores in 88% of matches (28 of 32 matches), while Hansa Rostock keeps a clean sheet in 34% (11 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hansa Rostock
Over / Under - Ulm
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hansa Rostock is 60% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Hansa Rostock · 0.94 pts / match - Ulm
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hansa Rostock - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 47%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ulm - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 80% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hansa Rostock
Ulm
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (3. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Hansa Rostock | Liga | Ulm | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.91 | 3.13 | ▲ 3.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 53% | 64% | ▲ 72% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 63% | 63% | ▲ 66% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 34% | 21% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 77% | • 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 83% | ▼ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Hansa Rostock 1 - 0 - 0 Ulm. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hansa Rostock vs Ulm?
The 3. Liga match finished Hansa Rostock 5:1 Ulm. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hansa Rostock vs Ulm?
Hansa Rostock score 1.78 goals per game on average and Ulm 1.28. The 3. Liga average is 3.13 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 63% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 72% of Ulm's.
What form are Hansa Rostock and Ulm in?
Over the last 5 games Hansa Rostock have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Ulm 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hansa Rostock vs Ulm?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.