Hanwell Town vs Chichester City: match statistics

Hanwell Town have the slightly more stable recent run: they have collected 8 points from five matches, compared with Chichester City's 7, while their goal difference over this period stands at 6:5 versus the visitors' 8:7. At home, the hosts have lost neither of their two matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding just 0.5, whereas Chichester City score 0.5 goals away from home and allow opponents 1.5. Hanwell create chances worth 1.44 xG per match at home while conceding 1.02 xG, and they also average 12.5 shots, including 3.5 on target. Chichester have failed to score in 50% of their away matches, which, combined with Hanwell's 50% clean-sheet rate, strengthens the case for limiting the visitors' attacking output. The small number of matches played so far and draws in half of the hosts' home appearances increase the likelihood of a share of the points, but Hanwell's advantage at their own ground points to a 1 result.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, primarily due to Chichester City’s very poor away scoring record so far: they average only 0.5 goals and fail to score in 50% of matches. Their season BTTS rate is 0%, while Hanwell Town keep a clean sheet in 50% of their appearances. The visitors’ last five matches look more promising offensively, with an average of 1.6 goals and an xG of 1.21, but during this period the hosts have limited opponents to just 0.52 xG and conceded an average of 1.0 goal. Hanwell Town score as many as 2.5 goals per home match, so the most likely scenario is one in which the hosts find the net, but Chichester City fail to respond. Hanwell’s 60% BTTS rate across their last five matches limits confidence in the pick; however, the visitors’ 0% season BTTS rate remains the key advantage for the No Goal scenario for one of the teams.

The record from the last five matches indicates a moderate goal profile: Hanwell Town matches averaged 2.2 goals, while Chichester City matches averaged 3.0 goals. Hanwell scored 1.2 goals per game during this period and conceded just 1.0, with a very low average xG against of 0.52. Chichester did average 1.6 goals per match, but its average xG stands at 1.21, making a projection of around 1.05 goals against the better-defending hosts more measured. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as neither team exceeded the 4.5-goal threshold this season, while only 50% of Hanwell matches and 0% of Chichester matches ended with at least four goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hanwell Town win, as the hosts were level at the break in all of their last five matches and nevertheless went on to win 40% of them. Over the same period, Chichester City never drew at half-time: they were trailing in 60% of matches and leading in only 40%. At home, Hanwell average 2.5 goals per match, compared with just 0.5 goals scored by Chichester away from home, which clearly strengthens the hosts’ advantage in the final outcome. After the break, Hanwell average 1.0 goal scored at home and concede none, while Chichester fail to score in second halves away from home and concede an average of 0.5 goals. Caution is advised with the 1/1 option due to the hosts’ recent first-half form, as they have scored only 0.6 goals per match before the break across their last five appearances.