Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Maccabi Tel Aviv: match statistics

Hapoel Be'er Sheva sit top (23 wins, 7 draws, 4 losses) with 73 goals scored, while Maccabi Tel Aviv are 3rd (19 wins, 8 draws, 7 losses) with 71 goals. At home Hapoel average 2.25 goals and only 0.75 conceded per game (xG for 2.17, xG against 1.07), whereas Maccabi on the road average 2.13 goals and concede 1.13 (xG for 1.79, xG against 1.32). In the last 5 matches Hapoel have 4 wins and 10 goals, yielding 2.6 points per game; Maccabi have 2 wins from 5, 11 goals but 7 conceded and 1.4 points per game. Hapoel generate more chances — 18.56 shots and 6.94 on target at home with 61% possession and a 6% clean-sheet rate, while Maccabi register 14.8 shots and 5.6 on target away, 57% possession and a 19% clean-sheet rate. Considering the home side’s unbeaten record at home (0% losses), higher xG (2.17 vs 1.79), superior home defence (0.75 vs 1.13) and form (2.6 pts vs 1.4 pts), I predict a Hapoel Be'er Sheva win.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Hapoel 61% and Maccabi 63%, averaging 62% versus the league rate of 54%. Both sides consistently score and create chances — Hapoel records 2.06 goals per game and xG 2.01, Maccabi 2.13 goals per game and xG 1.79; they concede 1.22 and 1.13 goals per game respectively. Shot metrics (5.72 vs 5.6 on target; 16.33 vs 14.8 total) and total season goals (73 vs 71) confirm the offensive quality of both teams. In the last 5 matches Hapoel scored 10 and conceded 3 (0.6 per game), which lowered its BTTS to 40%, while Maccabi scored 11 and conceded 7 (1.4 per game) with BTTS 60% in that period. Given the strong season-long BTTS signals of 61–63% and xG/shot data indicating chance creation, despite Hapoel’s good short-term defensive form, I assess BTTS - Yes as the more likely scenario.

Both teams generate a high number of chances: Hapoel xG 2.01, Maccabi xG 1.79, with xG conceded 1.20 (Hapoel) and 1.32 (Maccabi). Based on this I estimate 1.67 expected goals for the home side and 1.50 for the visitors, totaling 3.17 goals, which increases the probability of at least 2 goals. Seasonal percentages confirm the offensive trend — Over 1.5 occurred in 83% of Hapoel’s matches and 81% of Maccabi’s, Over 2.5 in 72% and 63%, and BTTS rates are 61% and 63% respectively. In the last 5 matches Hapoel scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6), Maccabi scored 11 (2.2) and conceded 7 (1.4), further supporting a high-scoring scenario. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (estimated 83%), therefore I recommend backing Over at the 1.5 line.

I back 1/1 (home leading at Half-Time and winning Full-Time) because Hapoel has strong first halves: they led at the break in 50% of matches, averaging 0.83 goals by Half-Time while conceding only 0.28. Over the Full-Time Hapoel averages 2.06 goals and extracts 2.0 points per home match, while Maccabi averages 1.81 points and an xG of 1.79 versus Hapoel’s xG of 2.01, indicating the home side’s superiority in chance quality. In the last five matches Hapoel won 4 of 5 (80%) whereas Maccabi won only 2 of 5 (40%), and Hapoel conceded 0.0 goals on average by Half-Time in those five, which further supports the lead at the break for the hosts. Shot and conversion statistics are similar (16.33 vs 14.8 shots per match and conversion 13% vs 14%), so the difference is driven by higher xG and Hapoel’s consistency in first halves. Therefore the 1/1 scenario is the strongest signal, while Half-Time draws (X/1, X/X) carry lower but noticeable probability.