Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva: match statistics

Hapoel Haifa hold a slight edge thanks to home advantage: across two home matches, they have averaged 1.5 goals scored and conceded just 0.5, while Maccabi Petah Tikva concede an average of 2 goals away from home. The visitors’ defence looks particularly vulnerable, allowing chances worth an average of 2.35 xG per match, compared with 1.37 xG conceded by the hosts at home. However, Maccabi can pose a threat themselves: away from home, they average 1.5 xG and 5 shots on target, compared with Hapoel’s 1.19 xG and 3 shots on target at home. In their last five matches, the hosts have recorded three draws and just one defeat, while the visitors have won twice but lost three times and conceded 11 goals in total. This points to the hosts, although their three draws in five matches mean a share of the points remains a realistic outcome.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 100% of the matches covered by the season data, while over their last 5 matches the rates were 80% for Hapoel Haifa and 100% for Maccabi Petah Tikva. The hosts average 1.67 goals scored and the visitors 1.50, giving both sides a solid basis to find the net. At the same time, Hapoel concede an average of 2.33 goals and Maccabi 2.00; the visitors’ defensive vulnerability is also reflected in their opponents’ average xG of 2.35. In their last 5 appearances, Maccabi conceded an average of 2.2 goals, while Hapoel scored 1.4, further supporting the chance of a goal for the hosts. Although the league-wide BTTS rate is 60%, the results and scoring records of both teams point to a higher-than-average probability of BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal) here.

In the matches played between these two teams so far, at least 3 goals have been scored every time, with both sides finding the net, strongly supporting a multi-goal scenario. Hapoel average 1.67 goals, while Maccabi’s defense allows opponents chances worth 2.35 xG per match, giving the hosts a clear opportunity to score. The visitors average 1.50 goals, while Hapoel concede 2.33 goals per match; across their last 5 matches, Maccabi conceded an average of 2.20 goals. The 3.35-goal forecast points to a high-scoring game, but given the small sample of previous meetings, Over 1.5 goals is a safer pick than Over 2.5, with an estimated probability of 85%.

The most likely scenario is that Hapoel Haifa lead at the break and maintain their advantage until the end of the match. In their last five games, the hosts were ahead at half-time in 40% of cases, while Maccabi Petah Tikva were trailing at the break in 60% of their matches. The hosts are also favoured by an average xG of 1.77 compared with the 2.35 xG conceded by the visitors, as well as 7.67 shots on target per match against their opponents’ 5.0. Over their last five games, Hapoel conceded an average of 1.2 goals, while Maccabi conceded 2.2, further supporting a home win prediction. The risk to the 1/1 pick is the visitors’ effectiveness after half-time: they average 1.0 goal in the second half, while the hosts concede 1.0, so this scenario does not have a significant edge over the alternatives.