Hapoel Katamon vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona: match statistics

Ironi Kiryat Shmona sit 6th, while Hapoel Katamon are only 14th, and the visitors have collected 9 points from their last five matches compared to the hosts’ 7 points. The Kiryat Shmona side have conceded just 5 goals during this period, whereas Katamon have conceded as many as 9, clearly indicating greater defensive stability for the visitors. At home, the hosts do create plenty of chances, averaging 16 shots and recording an xG of 1.80, but they concede an average of 5 goals per match with an against xG of 1.96. The visitors enjoy a decisive possession advantage, at 68% compared to 49%, while their defensive against xG stands at just 1.22. Both teams have so far lost their only respective home and away fixture, but the visitors’ superior recent form and significantly tighter defence point to an Ironi Kiryat Shmona victory.

The signal for both teams to score is reinforced by their form over the last 5 matches: both Hapoel Katamon and Ironi Kiryat Shmona recorded BTTS in 60% of their games. The hosts scored an average of 1.6 goals during this period but conceded as many as 1.8, while the visitors netted 1.6 goals per match. Ironi Kiryat Shmona also created very good chances, posting an average xG of 1.84 across their last five appearances, compared with 1.45 xG conceded by Katamon. Katamon does have a perfect clean-sheet record in their matches at home so far, but this is a very small sample, and their season xG against stands at 1.39. The hosts are favourites to score, averaging 2.0 goals and 6 shots on target at home, so the most likely scenario is that the visitors will also make the most of their attacking quality.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as both teams have averaged 1.6 goals scored over their last five matches. Hapoel Katamon conceded 1.8 goals per game during this period, while Ironi Kiryat Shmona created chances worth an average of 1.84 xG, increasing the visitors’ attacking potential. The hosts average 6 shots on target per match compared with 2 for their opponents, and their season average for goals scored stands at 2.0. In the teams’ last five appearances, the 2.5-goal line was surpassed in 60% of cases, making Over 2.5 a realistic option, although less reliable than Over 1.5. The projection of 2.90 goals reflects both sides’ attacking form, but also the fact that their matches have so far produced no more than 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Ironi Kiryat Shmona win, as Hapoel Katamon were level at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring only 0.4 goals per game during that period. The visitors have also averaged 0.4 goals before half-time across their last five matches, but they went on to win 80% of those games after the break and recorded a +4 goal difference. Ironi are in better current form, winning 60% of their last five matches compared with Hapoel’s 40%, while also conceding an average of 1.0 goals per game against the hosts’ 1.8. The home side have an edge in chance creation, with an xG of 1.61 compared with their opponents’ 1.37 and 6 shots on target to 2, but their weaker recent first-half performances increase the likelihood of an even opening. After the interval, both teams have averaged 1.2 goals across their last five appearances, but the visitors’ defence has conceded only 0.4 goals per game in that period, supporting their eventual victory.