Harju Jalgpallikool vs Nõmme Kalju: match statistics
Harju Jalgpallikool vs Nõmme Kalju: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Harju Jalgpallikool played Nõmme Kalju in Meistriliiga (Estonia). The match was played on 8 April 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Harju Jalgpallikool: 3-0-1, 2.25 points/match. Nõmme Kalju: 4-0-0, 3.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Harju Jalgpallikool scores 1.75 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Nõmme Kalju scores 2.00 and concedes 0.25. League average: 3.14 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Harju Jalgpallikool 50%, Nõmme Kalju 25%. Over 2.5: Harju Jalgpallikool 50%, Nõmme Kalju 50%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 64%.
xG, shots and style
Nõmme Kalju has higher xG: 1.87 vs 1.44. Harju Jalgpallikool: 11.8 shots per match, Nõmme Kalju: 15.3.
Match halves
Harju Jalgpallikool: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.00. Nõmme Kalju: half-time lead 75%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Harju Jalgpallikool: 46-60 (3 goals). Nõmme Kalju: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Meistriliiga: 3.14 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 64%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-4. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The favorite is Nõmme Kalju: in the season they have 4 wins, 0 losses, 8 goals scored and only 1 conceded, and in the last 5 matches they have won all 5 and scored 11 goals. The visitors generate 1.7 xG per away match, average 14.5 shots with 45% possession, while Harju at home has 1.08 xG, only 7 shots and 33% possession. Defensively Kalju’s advantage is clear: on average 0 goals conceded away and 100% clean sheets, whereas Harju at home concedes 1.5 goals on average and has an average xG against of 2.35. Harju can be dangerous in terms of efficiency — on average 1.5 goals per home match with a shot conversion rate of 21% versus 7% for Kalju, so the hosts capitalize on their limited chances. Considering the superior quality of the visitors’ chances (xG 1.7 vs 1.08), the advantage in shots (14.5 vs 7) and spotless away defense, I predict a Nõmme Kalju victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes due to the hosts' offensive profile: Harju score on average 3.0 goals per home match, have xG 2.04, average 16.0 shots (6.5 on target) and a 19% conversion rate, while Nõmme have xG 1.7 and 14.5 shots (4.0 on target). Counterargument is Nõmme's extremely tight away numbers: season-long clean sheet rate 100% and 0.0 goals conceded on the road, plus season BTTS 0%, which lowers the probability of both teams scoring. However, the last 5 matches signal the opposite — Harju have 60% BTTS in the last 5, Nõmme 40%, and across those 5 Harju concede on average 1.2 goals versus 0.4 for Nõmme, suggesting the hosts have been more vulnerable recently. Additionally the league posts a BTTS rate of 55% and 3.15 average goals per game, so given Harju’s high efficiency and decent xG for both teams the edge points toward a Goal/Goal outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model combines xG and shot data; the projection is 1.57 goals for Harju Jalgpallikool and 1.50 for Nõmme Kalju, totaling 3.07 goals. This assessment takes into account the home xG of 2.04 versus the xG against the visitors of 1.10 (averaging to 1.57 for the home side) and the away xG of 1.70 versus the xG against the home team of 1.30 (averaging to 1.50 for the visitors). The home team averages 3.0 goals scored at home, generates 16.0 shots per match with 6.5 on target and has a high conversion rate of 19.0%, which increases the likelihood they will score at least 2 goals. The visitors have seasonally conceded 0.0 goals with 100.0% clean sheets, but their xG against is 1.1 and they conceded on average 0.4 goals in the last 5 matches, so the defense is solid but does not eliminate the risk of conceding. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I rate 95%), because the 3.07-goal projection significantly exceeds the 1.5 line, the league averages 3.15 goals per game, and the home side had 100% of home matches over 1.5; Over 2.5 has moderate support (~68%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~33%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Data show that the away team leads at the break very frequently: across the season they led at the break in 100% of matches, and in the last 5 fixtures they did so in 80% of cases. At the same time the home side is particularly dangerous after the interval — they average 2.0 goals in the second half, earned 6 points in second halves and record 3.0 points per match in those periods, with a 100% win rate in second halves. The hosts also have higher xG (2.04 vs 1.70), more shots (16.0 vs 14.5) and a markedly better conversion rate (19% vs 7%), indicating they can efficiently capitalize on created chances. The fact that the hosts were trailing at half-time in 50% of their matches combined with their second-half dominance suggests a scenario in which the away side leads at half-time and the home side completes a turnaround to win the match — hence the best HT/FT pick: 2/1.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Harju Jalgpallikool | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nõmme Kalju is 33% better for: last-5 form.
2.25 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 3 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nõmme Kalju is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.75 goals / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 2 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Nõmme Kalju is 300% better for: goals conceded per match.
1 goals / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 0.25 goals / match - Nõmme Kalju
Harju Jalgpallikool scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Nõmme Kalju keeps a clean sheet in 75% (3 of 4 matches).
Nõmme Kalju scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Harju Jalgpallikool keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Harju Jalgpallikool
Over / Under - Nõmme Kalju
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nõmme Kalju is 50% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - Harju Jalgpallikool · 2.25 pts / match - Nõmme Kalju
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Harju Jalgpallikool - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 75%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Nõmme Kalju - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 75% of matches and wins 100%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 50% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 100% |
| No goal | 25% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Harju Jalgpallikool
Nõmme Kalju
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Meistriliiga).
Teams vs league
| Harju Jalgpallikool | Liga | Nõmme Kalju | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.75 | 3.14 | ▼ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 50% | 64% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 23% | ▲ 75% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 68% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 91% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Harju Jalgpallikool 0 - 0 - 4 Nõmme Kalju. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Harju Jalgpallikool vs Nõmme Kalju?
The Meistriliiga match finished Harju Jalgpallikool 0:2 Nõmme Kalju. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Harju Jalgpallikool and Nõmme Kalju?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Harju Jalgpallikool won 0, Nõmme Kalju won 4 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Harju Jalgpallikool vs Nõmme Kalju?
Harju Jalgpallikool score 1.75 goals per game on average and Nõmme Kalju 2.00. The Meistriliiga average is 3.14 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 64% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Harju Jalgpallikool's matches and 25% of Nõmme Kalju's.
What form are Harju Jalgpallikool and Nõmme Kalju in?
Over the last 5 games Harju Jalgpallikool have a 3-0-1 record (2.25 points per game) and Nõmme Kalju 4-0-0 (3.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Harju Jalgpallikool vs Nõmme Kalju?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.