Harju Jalgpallikool vs Trans: match statistics

Harju Jalgpallikool has a clear home advantage: over the season they scored 15 goals and average 1.17 goals per home match with an xG of 1.37 and 4.5 shots on target per game, while their home conversion rate is 11%. Trans’s away form is poor — they average only 0.33 goals per away match, 67% of away games end with them failing to score, they have no away wins (0% away victories) and concede an average of 3.83 goals per game on the road. Key comparison: Harju posts higher attacking xG (1.37 vs 1.15), more shots on target (4.5 vs 2.5) and better conversion (11% vs 4%), indicating more clear scoring chances for the hosts. Both teams have struggled at the end of the run — Harju are 1-0-4 in the last 5, Trans are 1-0-4 as well, both averaging 0.6 points per game in that period; seasonally Trans have conceded 34 goals and carry a -21 away goal difference, while Harju have kept a clean sheet in 33% of home matches versus 0% for the visitors. Considering superior chance creation at home, higher conversion rate and Trans’s catastrophic away metrics (0% away wins and 67% of matches without scoring), I predict a home victory.

I forecast BTTS - No with 70% probability versus 30% for BTTS - Yes. Trans shows very poor finishing: 0.33 goals per match for the season and only 0.2 in the last 5 (1 goal in 5 matches) despite xG = 1.15; they also register only 2.5 shots on target per match and a 4% conversion rate, which severely limits their scoring chances. Harju produces xG = 1.81 and has scored 15 goals this season (1.14 per match), and Trans concedes an average of 3.83 goals per match this season (34 conceded), so the home side have a high probability to score. However, BTTS in Harju’s last 5 matches is only 20% and Trans’s is 0%, while the league BTTS rate is 53%, indicating recent form reduces the likelihood of both teams scoring. Overall, Trans’s low actual goal output (0.33 season, 0.2 recent) outweighs the xG potential and favors the No Goal scenario.

The xG model projects a total of approximately 3.27 expected goals: Harju ~1.84 xG (xG_for 1.81 vs opponent xG_against 1.86) and Trans ~1.43 xG (xG_for 1.15 vs home xG_against 1.70). Season-long metrics show Over 1.5 occurs in 86% of Harju’s matches and 83% of Trans’s matches, strongly favoring Over 1.5. Additionally, Trans concedes on average 3.83 goals per match (34 conceded), and the hosts average 15.57 shots and 4.29 on target, increasing goal-scoring opportunities. Over 2.5 is also supported (86%/67% seasonally), but in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 rates drop to 60% for the home side and 40% for the away side, so the most reliable selection from the data is Over 1.5.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Harju win at full-time (X/1) — I assign it a 38% probability. Harju has a clear offensive advantage: home xG 1.81 versus Trans 1.15, on average 4.29 shots on target versus 2.5, and a higher finishing rate 7% versus 4%, while the visitors concede on average 3.83 goals per match. Second-half data are decisive: the hosts average 1.71 points after the break and have 100% of matches with at least one goal in the second half, whereas Trans averages 0.0 points after the break and 0.0 goals in the second half, additionally conceding on average 2.33 goals after the break. I expect a draw at the break because Harju lead at the break in only 14% of matches and have 43% half-time draws, which combined with their second-half dominance gives a strong signal for X/1; the 1/1 outcome is given 23% as a realistic but weaker alternative, and Trans’s chances of a full-time win are marginal (e.g. 2/2 only 2%).