Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch: match statistics

Harrogate Town sit 4th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while 11th-placed AFC Hornchurch have managed just one win over the same period, scoring only 1 goal compared with the hosts’ 11. At home, Harrogate average 2.83 goals and 7.83 shots on target per match, while Hornchurch average 1 goal and 3.67 shots on target away from home. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in the quality of their chances: their home xG is 2.01, while the visitors concede chances worth an average of 1.91 xG on the road. Hornchurch lose 67% of their away matches and concede an average of 2.33 goals in them, which, combined with Harrogate’s scoring form, significantly boosts the hosts’ chances of winning. Harrogate’s defence remains a potential concern, however: they concede an average of 1.5 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is AFC Hornchurch’s attack: the visitors have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches and failed to score in half of their away games. Harrogate Town concede an average of just 0.25 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 75% of matches, further limiting the visitors’ chances of scoring. The hosts are more likely to find the net, averaging 1.25 goals at home, while Hornchurch concede 2.33 goals away. A counterpoint is the visitors’ xG of 1.18 and the fact that Harrogate conceded an average of 1.6 goals across their last 5 matches. Even so, Hornchurch’s marked drop in scoring form makes a match in which at least one team fails to score the more likely outcome.

Harrogate concede an average of just 0.25 goals at home and have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their matches, while Hornchurch have scored only 1 goal in total across their last five games. On the other hand, the visitors concede an average of 2.33 goals away from home, giving the hosts a genuine chance of scoring more than once. Despite this attacking advantage, Harrogate have not exceeded 3.5 total goals in any of their home matches, while this has occurred in 33% of Hornchurch’s away games. Therefore, with a forecast of 1.85 goals for the hosts and 0.70 for the visitors, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick, although the league average of 3.13 goals warrants caution.

The strongest case is for Harrogate Town to lead at the break and go on to win after 90 minutes. In their last five matches, Harrogate led at half-time three times, while AFC Hornchurch were trailing at that stage four times and never led. The difference is also evident in their scoring form: the hosts have recently averaged 2.2 goals per match, compared with just 0.2 for the visitors. Across the full sample of matches, Harrogate won 75% and conceded an average of 0.25 goals, while Hornchurch lost 67% and conceded an average of 2.33. The second-half records also point to Harrogate holding on to any potential lead: they have yet to concede a second-half goal, while Hornchurch have conceded 1.33 on average.