Harrogate Town vs Notts County: match statistics
Notts County are the clear favorite in this match. The visitors are in 4th place in the table with an impressive 21 wins this season, while Harrogate Town are in 23rd place with just 7 wins. The form of both teams strongly favors the away side – Notts County have scored 13 goals in their last 5 games and average 1.8 points per match, while the hosts have only 0.8 points and have scored just 5 goals. Harrogate Town lose as many as 68% of their home matches and score an average of only 0.63 goals per home game, which is a huge contrast compared to Notts County's 1.32 goals on average away from home. The difference in goal difference (-19 for the hosts vs +4 for the visitors) and Notts County's higher shooting accuracy (13% vs 5%) further confirm the away team's advantage.
Harrogate Town vs Notts County: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Harrogate Town played Notts County in EFL League Two (England). The match was played on 28 March 2026. Final score: 0:2.
Current form
Harrogate Town: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Notts County: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Harrogate Town scores 0.74 and concedes 1.49 goals per match. Notts County scores 1.67 and concedes 1.08. League average: 2.55 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Harrogate Town 41%, Notts County 56%. Over 2.5: Harrogate Town 33%, Notts County 56%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Notts County has higher xG: 1.34 vs 1.27. Harrogate Town: 11.3 shots per match, Notts County: 11.2.
Match halves
Harrogate Town: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.38. Notts County: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.97.
Goals by minute
Harrogate Town: 76-90+ (7 goals). Notts County: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
League Two: 2.55 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Notts County are the clear favorite in this match. The visitors are in 4th place in the table with an impressive 21 wins this season, while Harrogate Town are in 23rd place with just 7 wins. The form of both teams strongly favors the away side – Notts County have scored 13 goals in their last 5 games and average 1.8 points per match, while the hosts have only 0.8 points and have scored just 5 goals. Harrogate Town lose as many as 68% of their home matches and score an average of only 0.63 goals per home game, which is a huge contrast compared to Notts County's 1.32 goals on average away from home. The difference in goal difference (-19 for the hosts vs +4 for the visitors) and Notts County's higher shooting accuracy (13% vs 5%) further confirm the away team's advantage.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal data indicates an above-average propensity for BTTS: Harrogate has a 55% BTTS rate, and Notts County 58%, against a league average of 52%. Notts County in their last 5 matches are scoring heavily (2.6 goals/match; 13 goals), but are also conceding significantly (1.8 goals/match; only a 21% clean sheet rate this season), which increases the hosts' chance of scoring. The xG profile also favors goals from both sides: xG against Notts County is 1.32, and Harrogate generates 1.47 xG, so the hosts have a solid foundation to score. On the other hand, Harrogate has only a 40% BTTS rate in their last 5 matches and lower scoring efficiency in that period (1.0 goal/match), which raises the risk of a 'No Goal' scenario for one team. However, overall, the visitors' offensive form combined with their defensive instability gives a marginally stronger signal for BTTS: YES.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
A model based on average goals and xG indicates approximately 2.72 goals in the match (1.42 for Harrogate and 1.30 for Notts County). Harrogate at home has a high goal output (2.0) and solid attacking xG (1.47), while Notts County away regularly scores (1.32) with an xG of 1.21 while conceding an average of 1.11. Seasonal data for Over 1.5 is strong on both sides (Harrogate 70%, Notts 79%), supporting a high probability of at least 2 goals. The 2.5 line is closer to a balanced probability (both teams seasonally ~53–60% Over 2.5), despite Notts County's last 5 matches being as high as 100% Over 2.5, while Harrogate only 40%. For 3.5, caution is evident (Notts County only 11% Over 3.5 and 0% Over 4.5), therefore the safest choice remains Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time, as both teams frequently draw at HT (Harrogate 55%, Notts County 53%), and Notts has low goal production in the first halves (0.42 goals per HT and as many as 68% FTS in HT). After the break, Notts' matches clearly open up (100% over 0.5 in the second half, averaging 1.63 goals/2H), and the team has a strong finish (8 goals in min. 76–90). In the last 5 matches, the form advantage lies with the visitors: Notts scores 2.6 goals per match and has a 60% win rate, while Harrogate has only 0.8 PPG and a 60% loss rate. Although Harrogate has better seasonal parameters at home (PPG 1.95, 60% wins; more accurate shots 5.05 vs 3.68), the current form and post-break goal profile increase the chances that Notts will turn the match around in the second half. Therefore, I rate the X/2 option highest, while simultaneously acknowledging significant risk in the alternative X/1 due to the hosts' seasonal strength.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Harrogate Town | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Notts County is 125% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Harrogate Town · 1.8 pts / match - Notts County
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Notts County is 126% better for: goals scored per match.
0.74 goals / match - Harrogate Town · 1.67 goals / match - Notts County
Notts County is 38% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.49 goals / match - Harrogate Town · 1.08 goals / match - Notts County
Harrogate Town scores in 56% of matches (22 of 39 matches), while Notts County keeps a clean sheet in 28% (11 of 39 matches).
Notts County scores in 82% of matches (32 of 39 matches), while Harrogate Town keeps a clean sheet in 18% (7 of 39 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Harrogate Town
Over / Under - Notts County
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Notts County is 50% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.92 pts / match - Harrogate Town · 1.38 pts / match - Notts County
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Harrogate Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 18%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Notts County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 54%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Harrogate Town
Notts County
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (League Two).
Teams vs league
| Harrogate Town | Liga | Notts County | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.23 | 2.55 | ▲ 2.74 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 52% | ▲ 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 47% | ▲ 56% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 27% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 62% | 67% | • 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 74% | 77% | ▲ 92% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Harrogate Town 0 - 1 - 0 Notts County. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Harrogate Town vs Notts County?
The EFL League Two match finished Harrogate Town 0:2 Notts County. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Harrogate Town vs Notts County?
Harrogate Town score 0.74 goals per game on average and Notts County 1.67. The EFL League Two average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Harrogate Town's matches and 56% of Notts County's.
What form are Harrogate Town and Notts County in?
Over the last 5 games Harrogate Town have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Notts County 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Harrogate Town vs Notts County?
The statistical background for Harrogate Town vs Notts County — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.