Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United: match statistics
Carlisle United clearly dominates this clash in terms of form and seasonal achievements. The guests occupy 3rd place in the table with an impressive record of 21 victories, while Hartlepool sits in 9th position with just 12 wins. The form of the last five matches unequivocally speaks for Carlisle—4 victories and 12 goals scored, compared to Hartlepool's catastrophic series without a single win (0-3-2) and only 5 goals. Carlisle also presents better efficiency in away matches (60% wins, 1.47 average goals per match), while Hartlepool wins only 38% of meetings at home. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the guests, and their consistency in gaining points (2.4 PPG) significantly exceeds the hosts (0.6 PPG). Considering all these factors, Carlisle United has decidedly higher chances of achieving victory in this match.
Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hartlepool United played Carlisle United in National League (England). The match was played on 25 February 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Hartlepool United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Carlisle United: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hartlepool United scores 1.18 and concedes 1.09 goals per match. Carlisle United scores 1.85 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.88 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hartlepool United 45%, Carlisle United 48%. Over 2.5: Hartlepool United 36%, Carlisle United 58%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 56%.
xG, shots and style
Carlisle United has higher xG: 1.83 vs 1.48. Hartlepool United: 11.4 shots per match, Carlisle United: 14.7.
Match halves
Hartlepool United: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.73. Carlisle United: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 0.94.
Goals by minute
Hartlepool United: 76-90+ (11 goals). Carlisle United: 16-30 (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
National League: 2.88 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 56%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Carlisle United clearly dominates this clash in terms of form and seasonal achievements. The guests occupy 3rd place in the table with an impressive record of 21 victories, while Hartlepool sits in 9th position with just 12 wins. The form of the last five matches unequivocally speaks for Carlisle—4 victories and 12 goals scored, compared to Hartlepool's catastrophic series without a single win (0-3-2) and only 5 goals. Carlisle also presents better efficiency in away matches (60% wins, 1.47 average goals per match), while Hartlepool wins only 38% of meetings at home. xG statistics show a slight advantage for the guests, and their consistency in gaining points (2.4 PPG) significantly exceeds the hosts (0.6 PPG). Considering all these factors, Carlisle United has decidedly higher chances of achieving victory in this match.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hartlepool United | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Carlisle United is 140% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Hartlepool United · 2.4 pts / match - Carlisle United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Carlisle United is 57% better for: goals scored per match.
1.18 goals / match - Hartlepool United · 1.85 goals / match - Carlisle United
Hartlepool United is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.09 goals / match - Hartlepool United · 1.15 goals / match - Carlisle United
Hartlepool United scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Carlisle United keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
Carlisle United scores in 85% of matches (28 of 33 matches), while Hartlepool United keeps a clean sheet in 39% (13 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hartlepool United
Over / Under - Carlisle United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Carlisle United is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.18 pts / match - Hartlepool United · 1.64 pts / match - Carlisle United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hartlepool United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Carlisle United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +8 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (14 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hartlepool United
Carlisle United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (National League).
Teams vs league
| Hartlepool United | Liga | Carlisle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.27 | 2.88 | ▲ 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 56% | ▼ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 36% | 56% | ▲ 58% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 24% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 64% | 72% | ▲ 79% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 80% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Hartlepool United 0 - 0 - 1 Carlisle United. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United?
The National League match finished Hartlepool United 3:1 Carlisle United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United?
Hartlepool United score 1.18 goals per game on average and Carlisle United 1.85. The National League average is 2.88 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 56% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Hartlepool United's matches and 48% of Carlisle United's.
What form are Hartlepool United and Carlisle United in?
Over the last 5 games Hartlepool United have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Carlisle United 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hartlepool United vs Carlisle United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.