Hassania Agadir vs Maghreb Fès: match statistics

Maghreb Fès sit fourth in the table, while Hassania Agadir are sixth, but the stronger case for the visitors is their run of 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches. Over the same period, the hosts have won just once, drawn 3 times and lost once. The visitors have scored 8 goals and conceded 2 in those matches, compared with Hassania’s 5 scored and 6 conceded, pointing to a clear Maghreb advantage at both ends of the pitch. The hosts’ 3 draws in their last 5 matches mean there remains a significant chance of the points being shared, but the visitors’ results and goal difference make them the most likely winners. Shot and xG data do not provide reliable figures, so they cannot be used to assess the quality of chances created independently.

The scenario in which at least one team fails to score is slightly more likely. Maghreb Fès have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals across their last five matches, while Hassania Agadir have averaged 1.0 goals from an xG of 1.07, limiting confidence in the hosts finding the net. The visitors have the stronger attacking record over this period, averaging 1.6 goals compared with the hosts’ 1.0, but BTTS - Yes landed in 40% of their last five matches, versus 60% of Hassania’s. The league BTTS rate of 86% points towards goals at both ends, but the visitors’ solid defence and the hosts’ moderate scoring efficiency give a narrow edge to BTTS - No: at least one team is expected not to score, though this does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw.

Across their last 5 matches, Hassania averaged 2.2 goals and Maghreb 2.0, pointing to a total below 4 goals. During this period, the hosts scored 1.0 goal per match, while the visitors conceded just 0.4; Maghreb, meanwhile, scored 1.6 goals, with Hassania conceding 1.2. The teams’ average xG was 1.07 and 1.47, respectively, supporting a forecast of around 2.4 goals in total. Although the league average is 3.86 goals, Over 2.5 goals landed in only 20% of Hassania’s and 40% of Maghreb’s last 5 matches, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest pick.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as both teams were level at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches. After the break, the stronger signal points to Maghreb Fès: during this period, the visitors scored an average of 1.2 goals per match, while Hassania Agadir conceded 0.8. In their last 5 matches, Maghreb recorded 3 wins and averaged 1.6 goals, while the hosts won once and averaged 1.0 goal. Hassania’s only home match included in the data ended in a win after a goalless first half, but such a small sample does not outweigh the visitors’ stronger recent form. Therefore, I rate a draw at half-time followed by a Maghreb Fès win at full-time as the most likely HT/FT scenario.