Hassania Agadir vs UTS Rabat: match statistics

UTS Rabat shows better form — in the last 5 matches the visitors have 3 wins and 2 draws (0 losses) and average 2.2 points per game, while Hassania Agadir in their last 5 have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses and 1.4 points per game. In attack UTS has the edge: scored 6 goals in the last 5 matches versus Hassania’s 5, averaging 1.08 goals per away match vs 0.92 in the home matches of the hosts, with xG 1.4 vs 1.2. The visitors register more shots on target (avg 4.58 vs 3) and have a lower share of matches without scoring (25% vs 42%), while in the last 5 UTS conceded only 2 goals versus 5 for the hosts. Hassania, however, have a better home clean sheet rate (33% vs 8%) and a slightly lower average goals conceded at home 1.17 vs 1.33, but the overall form advantage, higher xG and greater number of shots on target favor the visitors’ win.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Hassania Agadir 62% and UTS Rabat 67%, a 64% average versus the league mean of 51%, indicating above-average likelihood of Goal/Goal. However, in the last 5 matches BTTS dropped to 40% for both sides, and UTS Rabat concedes only 0.4 goals per game in this period versus 1.0 for Hassania, suggesting a more solid away defence and a dampening of the short-term BTTS signal. Season offensive numbers are moderate — on average 1.00 goals for the home side and 1.08 for the visitors with xG 1.16 (Hassania) and 1.40 (UTS) — while both teams allow xG against of 1.41 (Hassania) and 1.46 (UTS), so chances are being created. Additionally, hosts fail to score in 31% of matches and visitors in 25%, and clean sheets are rare (15% vs 8%), which partly offsets the form drop and keeps the BTTS probability intact. Overall seasonal indicators favour both teams scoring, hence a moderate lean to BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 60%.

I calculate expected goals as the average xG of both teams: Hassania has xG_for 1.16 and UTS xG_against 1.46 => home side ~1.31 goals; UTS has xG_for 1.40 and Hassania xG_against 1.41 => away ~1.40, total ~2.71 expected goals. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurred for Hassania in 85% of matches and for UTS in 75%, and both teams have high BTTS rates: 62% and 67%, so Over 1.5 is a strong signal (I estimate 82%). The 2.5 line is more balanced: seasonal Over2.5 rates are 23% and 33% (average 28%), but with λ=2.71 the Poisson distribution gives about a 51% chance of 3+ goals, hence a slight edge for Over 2.5 (52% vs 48%). For 3.5 seasonally Over is only 15% and 8% (avg ~12%); although Poisson with λ=2.71 prices 4+ goals at ~29% — historical data and the low over3.5 percentages justify a strong Under (80%). The best play is Over 1.5 due to the combination of historical 85%/75%, low clean sheet probabilities (15%/8%) and the 2.71 expected goals.

I forecast a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X) as the most likely scenario (42%). Hassania Agadir were level at the break in 9 matches (69% of cases), and the overall share of full-time draws for the home side is 54%, which strongly points toward a draw. There is little scoring before the break — an average of 0.46 goals for the home side and 0.5 for the visitors (scoredAVGHT_home 0.46, scoredAVGHT_away 0.5) — therefore leads at the break are rare (Hassania led in only 2 matches, 15%). The second half can bring a turnaround, as the hosts have 85% of matches with at least one goal after the break (over05_2hg_percentage_home 85%) and concede on average 0.92 goals after the break (conceded_2hg_avg_home 0.92), while the visitors score on average 0.58 goals after the break (scored_2hg_avg_away 0.58). However, the fact that in the last 5 matches the half-time score held until the end in 60% of cases and that the hosts win only 8% of their fixtures this season (winPercentage_home 8%) makes X/X my selection.