Havadar vs Pars Jam Bushehr: match statistics

Pars Jam Bushehr head into this match in clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and have not lost any, while Havadar have recorded 2 draws and 3 defeats. During this period, the visitors have scored 9 goals and conceded 3, whereas the hosts have scored just 2 and conceded 10, pointing to Pars Jam Bushehr’s advantage at both ends of the pitch. The gap is also reflected in the standings, with the visitors in 6th place and Havadar in 16th; the hosts have also failed to win any of their 3 league matches this season. Caution in backing an away win is warranted by the visitors’ only away match so far, which ended in a goalless draw. Shot and xG data do not allow for a reliable comparison of chance quality, so the prediction is based primarily on results and goal difference.

The strongest indication against both teams scoring is Havadar’s form: over their last 5 matches, they averaged just 0.4 goals scored, while Pars Jam Bushehr conceded an average of 0.6. Over the same period, both teams scored in 20% of Havadar’s matches and 40% of the visitors’ matches. Pars Jam Bushehr have recently averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Havadar have conceded 2.0, so an away goal with the hosts failing to score looks more likely than a goalless draw. The 28% league rate for both teams to score also supports BTTS - No, which means at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 result. However, Havadar’s home average of 1.5 goals means the opposite scenario cannot be ruled out.

In their last 5 matches, Havadar averaged 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Pars Jam Bushehr averaged 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The visitors’ form increases the risk of several goals, supported by the fact that both teams went over the 2.5-goal line in 60% of their last 5 matches. On the other hand, the league average is just 1.58 goals, and matches with at least 3 goals account for 25%, so targeting a higher line is the more cautious approach. With a forecast of 0.65 goals for the hosts and 1.55 for the visitors, the total expected goals figure is 2.20, making Under 3.5 goals the strongest-value pick.

In their last five matches, Havadar have not won once, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, while Pars Jam Bushehr have recorded three wins, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The hosts were trailing at the break in three of those five matches and conceded an average of 1.4 goals before half-time; the visitors led at the break in two of five matches and scored an average of 0.8 goals before half-time. After the break, Havadar failed to score in any of their last five matches, while Pars averaged 1.0 goal over that period, supporting the prospect of the visitors holding on to any lead. Therefore, 2/2 is marginally more likely than X/2, although a level score at half-time remains a realistic possibility given the league average of 1.58 goals per match. This forecast should be treated with caution, as the home data for the hosts covers only two matches and the away data for the visitors only one.