Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics
Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Haverfordwest County played Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 9 October 2026. Venue: New Bridge Meadow Stadium. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Haverfordwest County: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Caernarfon Town: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Haverfordwest County scores 0.58 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Caernarfon Town scores 2.92 and concedes 1.17. League average: 3.27 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Haverfordwest County 25%, Caernarfon Town 58%. Over 2.5: Haverfordwest County 33%, Caernarfon Town 75%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 59%.
xG, shots and style
Caernarfon Town has higher xG: 1.87 vs 1.08. Haverfordwest County: 9.2 shots per match, Caernarfon Town: 15.8.
Match halves
Haverfordwest County: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.50. Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 58%, second-half goals 1.67.
Goals by minute
Haverfordwest County: 46-60 (3 goals). Caernarfon Town: 61-75 (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.27 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 59%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Caernarfon Town are the favourites: they sit 5th and have won 7 of their 12 matches, while Haverfordwest County are 12th with 3 wins and 8 defeats. Away from home, the visitors score an average of 2.83 goals and have yet to fail to score, while the hosts manage just 0.86 goals per home game and have been kept off the scoresheet in 57% of matches. Caernarfon’s advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances: their away xG is 1.73, while they concede just 0.78 xG to opponents, compared with Haverfordwest’s figures of 1.42 xG and 1.33 xG conceded in home matches. The visitors have won 4 of their 6 away games and have not lost any, whereas the hosts have been defeated in 57% of their home matches. Although both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, Caernarfon scored 17 goals during that period compared with the hosts’ 4, further pointing to an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
In their last 5 matches, Haverfordwest averaged just 0.8 goals, while Caernarfon limited opponents to chances worth only 0.71 xG, increasing the risk that the hosts fail to score. Over this period, both teams scored in 20% of Haverfordwest matches and 60% of Caernarfon matches, so the hosts’ recent form clearly weakens the case for BTTS - Yes. The visitors have considerable attacking threat, averaging 3.4 goals in their last 5 matches, but the hosts conceded only 0.8 goals per game over the same period, which offers no certainty that they will score either. Season BTTS rates stand at 50% for Haverfordwest and 67% for Caernarfon, so the edge is only slight in favour of BTTS - No. The deciding factor is chiefly the hosts’ recent lack of clinical finishing against the visitors’ solid defence.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
In their matches so far, at least 2 goals have been scored in 83% of Haverfordwest’s games and 100% of Caernarfon’s, providing a strong signal for Over 1.5 goals. The visitors have averaged 3.4 goals across their last 5 matches and generated an xG of 2.28, so they could largely clear this line on their own. Caution on higher totals is warranted by the hosts’ form: they have scored just 0.8 goals per game in their last 5 outings, with Over 2.5 goals landing in only 20% of those matches. The forecast of 1.25 goals for the hosts and 1.95 for the visitors gives a total of 3.20, but Over 1.5 goals remains the pick with the highest probability.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Caernarfon Town led at the break in 4 of their 6 matches this season, while Haverfordwest County were trailing at half-time 3 times over the same period. The visitors concede an average of 0.5 goals before the break, compared with 1.0 for the hosts, which points to them being ahead after 45 minutes. Their record over the full 90 minutes also supports them holding on to their lead: Caernarfon have won 4 of 6 matches and have not lost any, while the hosts have suffered 3 defeats. In their last 5 matches, the visitors averaged 3.4 goals scored, compared with 0.8 for the hosts, making 2/2 the strongest overall pick. X/2 remains a significant alternative, as the hosts have not conceded before the break in any of their last 5 matches.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Haverfordwest County | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 27% | 45% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Caernarfon Town is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Haverfordwest County · 1.6 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Caernarfon Town is 403% better for: goals scored per match.
0.58 goals / match - Haverfordwest County · 2.92 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
Caernarfon Town is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Haverfordwest County · 1.17 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
Haverfordwest County scores in 33% of matches (4 of 12 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 33% (4 of 12 matches).
Caernarfon Town scores in 92% of matches (11 of 12 matches), while Haverfordwest County keeps a clean sheet in 8% (1 of 12 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Haverfordwest County
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Caernarfon Town is 75% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1 pts / match - Haverfordwest County · 1.75 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Haverfordwest County - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 58% of matches and wins 58%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +9 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (8 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Haverfordwest County
Caernarfon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Haverfordwest County | Liga | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 3.27 | ▲ 4.08 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 25% | 50% | ▲ 58% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 59% | ▲ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 8% | 26% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 25% | 77% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 92% | 85% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Haverfordwest County 0 - 2 - 0 Caernarfon Town. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Haverfordwest County 1:2 Caernarfon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Haverfordwest County and Caernarfon Town?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Haverfordwest County won 0, Caernarfon Town won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?
Haverfordwest County score 0.58 goals per game on average and Caernarfon Town 2.92. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.27 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 59% of games. Both teams score in 25% of Haverfordwest County's matches and 58% of Caernarfon Town's.
What form are Haverfordwest County and Caernarfon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Haverfordwest County have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Caernarfon Town 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Haverfordwest County vs Caernarfon Town?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.