HB Køge vs Hvidovre: match statistics

Hvidovre sit 3rd and remain unbeaten after three league matches, recording 2 wins and a draw, while HB Køge have lost all 3 games and sit 12th. The hosts have scored just 1 goal this season, lost their last five matches overall and are yet to score at home, despite averaging 13 shots per match. HB Køge’s defence concedes an average of 2 goals at home, with an xG against of 2.09, which should give the visitors space to create chances. Hvidovre have won 100% of their away matches so far, kept a clean sheet in every game and allowed opponents 0 goals per match. The visitors also possess greater quality in front of goal, averaging 5 shots on target compared with HB Køge’s 2, making an away win the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is not HB Køge’s very poor recent scoring record: the team has averaged just 0.2 goals over its last 5 matches and failed to score in any of them. Hvidovre have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their away fixtures so far, while facing a home attack with an xG of 1.09 across its last five outings points towards another game in which HB Køge fail to score. The hosts have conceded as many as 2.0 goals per match during this period, with an xGA of 1.82, so Hvidovre have solid grounds to find the net after averaging 1.2 goals in their last 5 matches. The visitors average 5 shots on target per game, the same as HB Køge, but the hosts have lost all 5 of their last matches and their main issue remains finishing. Although the league BTTS average stands at a high 72%, Hvidovre’s defensive superiority over HB Køge’s highly ineffective attack shifts the assessment towards a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

HB Køge are in very poor offensive form: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, with an xG of 1.09. Over the same period, Hvidovre averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while their average xG created was 1.52, indicating a realistic chance for the visitors to score around one goal. The hosts have recently conceded 2.0 goals per game, but Hvidovre do not possess an attack profile that favours a high-scoring game, and they have yet to concede a goal in the current campaign. The average projected total of 2.40 goals is below the league average of 3.0, while only 40% of Køge’s recent matches and 60% of Hvidovre’s matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. Therefore, the strongest signal is Under 3.5, as four or more goals would require Køge to be significantly more clinical than they have been during their recent run.

Hvidovre are in clearly better recent form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.2 goals and earned 1.4 points per game, while HB Køge have scored just 0.2 goals, lost all five matches, and conceded an average of 2.0 goals. The signal for the first half is particularly strong, as the hosts were trailing at half-time in 80% of their recent matches, failed to score before the break in any of them, while the visitors led in 40% and conceded just 0.2 goals in that period. Hvidovre kept a clean sheet at half-time in 80% of their last five appearances, further reducing the hosts’ chances of completing a turnaround before the break. Although HB Køge average five shots on target, their poor end product and five-match losing streak suggest that the visitors will retain their lead after half-time as well. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is 2/2.