Hearts of Oak vs Port City: match statistics

Port City sit 3rd and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while sixth-placed Hearts of Oak have won 2, but home advantage favors the hosts. Hearts average 2 goals at home and have yet to concede, although the data covers only 2 matches. Away from home, Port City average just 1 shot on target per match, and their xG is 0.72 compared with the hosts’ 1.53 xG at home. The visitors also allow chances worth an average of 2.6 xG away from home, suggesting that their current average of 0.5 goals conceded may be difficult to sustain. The small sample of matches in these conditions, along with Hearts’ two draws in their last five games, leaves a genuine possibility of the points being shared.

The strongest signal against both teams scoring concerns Port City: away from home, they average 1.0 goals, create chances worth 0.72 xG, and manage just 1 shot on target per match. The visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away games, while Hearts of Oak have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals across their last 5 matches. The hosts have greater attacking potential at home, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.67 xG, so the BTTS - No pick here primarily reflects the risk that Port City will fail to score. BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw. The data is not conclusive, however: BTTS - Yes landed in 100% of Hearts of Oak’s home matches, and in 60% of Port City’s last 5 games. Despite these arguments for BTTS - Yes, the visitors’ poor chance creation and the hosts’ solid recent defensive form tip the assessment toward BTTS - No.

Hearts of Oak average 2.0 goals and 7.0 shots on target at home, so they should create more chances than Port City, who average 1.0 shot on target away. The visitors allow opponents chances worth 2.60 xG, but none of their away matches have gone Over 2.5 goals. In each team’s last five matches, only 40% ended with at least three goals, while the league average is 2.24 goals. A forecast of 1.65 goals for the hosts and 0.70 for the visitors gives a total of 2.35, making Under 3.5 goals the safest pick; this line has been exceeded in 33% of Hearts of Oak’s home matches and 0% of Port City’s away matches.

The strongest signal is Hearts of Oak leading at the break and holding that advantage until the final whistle: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 2 of their 3 home matches and won 67% of those games. At home, they average 2.0 goals and 7 shots on target, while Port City average 1.0 goal and 1 shot on target away from home. The difference in attacking potential is also reflected in xG: 1.67 for the hosts compared with 0.72 for the visitors, whose opponents record an away xG of 2.60. The prospect of maintaining a potential lead is reinforced by the fact that Port City failed to score after half-time in either of the 2 away matches included. The risk is the visitors’ better overall form across their last 5 matches, averaging 2.0 points compared with the hosts’ 1.6; however, Hearts of Oak’s advantage in the home/away data points to a 1/1 scenario in the HT/FT market.