Hearts vs Celtic: match statistics
Hearts boast impressive home form with 73% of matches won at home and just one defeat all season. The hosts haven't lost a game at their own stadium, confirmed by an 11-match unbeaten run in recent home fixtures. Despite being second in the table, Celtic show clear weaknesses on the road – 36% losses and only 55% wins, which is well below the leader's standards. The goal difference gap is telling: Hearts have +16 at home, while Celtic have just +1 away. Efficiency is also a key factor – Hearts have better shot conversion (14% vs 10%) and more clean sheets at home (55% vs 36% for Celtic away). The hosts' advantage in xG (1.74 vs 1.45) and solid defense (averaging 0.64 goals conceded) argue for their victory, although Celtic's high quality and possession (67%) could make this a close encounter.
Hearts vs Celtic: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hearts played Celtic in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 25 January 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
Hearts: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match. Celtic: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hearts scores 1.91 and concedes 0.77 goals per match. Celtic scores 1.77 and concedes 0.95. League average: 2.59 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hearts 45%, Celtic 41%. Over 2.5: Hearts 50%, Celtic 59%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Celtic has higher xG: 1.94 vs 1.64. Hearts: 14.3 shots per match, Celtic: 16.9.
Match halves
Hearts: half-time lead 45%, second-half goals 1.14. Celtic: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.91.
Goals by minute
Hearts: 46-60 (9 goals). Celtic: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.59 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 3.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hearts boast impressive home form with 73% of matches won at home and just one defeat all season. The hosts haven't lost a game at their own stadium, confirmed by an 11-match unbeaten run in recent home fixtures. Despite being second in the table, Celtic show clear weaknesses on the road – 36% losses and only 55% wins, which is well below the leader's standards. The goal difference gap is telling: Hearts have +16 at home, while Celtic have just +1 away. Efficiency is also a key factor – Hearts have better shot conversion (14% vs 10%) and more clean sheets at home (55% vs 36% for Celtic away). The hosts' advantage in xG (1.74 vs 1.45) and solid defense (averaging 0.64 goals conceded) argue for their victory, although Celtic's high quality and possession (67%) could make this a close encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hearts | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hearts is 33% better for: last-5 form.
2.4 pts / match - Hearts · 1.8 pts / match - Celtic
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hearts is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.91 goals / match - Hearts · 1.77 goals / match - Celtic
Hearts is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.77 goals / match - Hearts · 0.95 goals / match - Celtic
Hearts scores in 91% of matches (20 of 22 matches), while Celtic keeps a clean sheet in 50% (11 of 22 matches).
Celtic scores in 82% of matches (18 of 22 matches), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 50% (11 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hearts
Over / Under - Celtic
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Celtic is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.68 pts / match - Hearts · 1.86 pts / match - Celtic
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 45% of matches and wins 68%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Celtic - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hearts
Celtic
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Hearts | Liga | Celtic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.68 | 2.59 | ▲ 2.73 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 49% | ▼ 41% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 48% | ▲ 59% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 29% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 82% | 74% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 77% | 79% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Hearts 2 - 0 - 0 Celtic. Average goals 3.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hearts vs Celtic?
The Premiership match finished Hearts 2:2 Celtic. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hearts and Celtic?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Hearts won 2, Celtic won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hearts vs Celtic?
Hearts score 1.91 goals per game on average and Celtic 1.77. The Premiership average is 2.59 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Hearts's matches and 41% of Celtic's.
What form are Hearts and Celtic in?
Over the last 5 games Hearts have a 4-0-1 record (2.40 points per game) and Celtic 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hearts vs Celtic?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Hearts vs Celtic: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.