Hearts vs Dundee United: match statistics

Dundee United have a slight edge in current form: they have collected 7 points from their last five matches, compared with Hearts’ 6 points. The visitors have scored 10 goals during this period, averaging 2.0 per game, while Hearts have managed just 4. Defensive performance is equally important: Dundee United have conceded 5 goals in their last five outings, whereas the hosts have conceded as many as 9, indicating that Hearts are more prone to defensive errors. Hearts have won 2 of their last 5 matches, but they have also suffered 3 defeats and lost their only league match so far this season, conceding 2 goals. The visitors drew their only league fixture 1:1, so Dundee United’s advantage is not decisive; however, their superior attacking efficiency supports an away win.

Dundee United have averaged 2.0 goals scored in their last five matches, while Hearts have conceded 1.8 goals over the same period, clearly strengthening the visitors’ chances of finding the net. The hosts have scored just 0.8 goals per game across their last five appearances, but their average xG was a solid 1.72, while Dundee United allowed opponents 1.14 xG. Hearts have not kept a clean sheet in the available seasonal data, and their opponents created as much as 2.24 xG on average, making a goal for the visitors particularly likely. However, both teams have recorded BTTS - Yes in only 40% of their last five matches, so the case for “Yes” is moderate, although it is supported by the high league-wide BTTS average of 67%.

The last five matches point to the attacking potential of both sides: Dundee United averaged 2.0 goals scored, while Hearts conceded 1.8 goals per match. The hosts have a weaker scoring record, with only 0.8 goals over this period, but their average xG stands at 1.72, while opponents are allowed chances worth an average of 1.14 xG. Dundee United generate as much as 1.92 xG per match, while Hearts allow opponents 1.49 xG, supporting the forecast of at least two goals. The Over 2.5 goals line landed in 60% of the last five matches for each team, but the safer and strongest option remains Over 1.5 goals, with a projected total of 3.10 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Dundee United win at full-time, as the visitors have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last five matches, compared with just 0.8 for Hearts. The first halves should be relatively even: both teams have averaged 0.6 goals during this period, while Hearts have conceded only 0.2 goals before the break. The second half is the key factor, however, with Dundee United averaging 1.4 goals scored, while Hearts have conceded as many as 1.6 goals and scored only 0.2 themselves. The visitors have won the second half in 60% of their last five matches, while the hosts have lost it in 80%, clearly strengthening the case for a later Dundee United advantage. Current-season data is still very limited, so greater weight should be placed on the teams’ form over their last five matches, which points to a turnaround from a half-time draw in Dundee United’s favour.