Hearts vs Motherwell: match statistics
Hearts vs Motherwell: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hearts played Motherwell in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 11 April 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Hearts: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Motherwell: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hearts scores 1.72 and concedes 0.84 goals per match. Motherwell scores 1.59 and concedes 0.81. League average: 2.69 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hearts 41%, Motherwell 44%. Over 2.5: Hearts 47%, Motherwell 38%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Hearts has higher xG: 1.66 vs 1.59. Hearts: 14.4 shots per match, Motherwell: 13.4.
Match halves
Hearts: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.97. Motherwell: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.88.
Goals by minute
Hearts: 76-90+ (13 goals). Motherwell: 76-90+ (12 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.69 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-2-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hearts are the favorites mainly due to an outstanding home defence: they concede just 0.56 goals per game on average and keep clean sheets in 63% of matches, whereas Motherwell concede 1.13 goals away and have a 33% clean sheet rate. In attack Hearts score 1.81 goals at home on average with an xG of 1.76 and 5.44 shots on target, while Motherwell score 1.47 goals away with an xG of 1.46 and 4.13 shots on target, indicating higher quality chances for the hosts. Hearts have 0% of home matches without scoring this season, whereas Motherwell failed to score in 27% of their away games, which further supports the home side. Form also favors Hearts: in the last 5 matches the hosts have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (2.0 pts/game), while Motherwell have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 pts/game). Considering a 75% home win rate for Hearts vs 27% away win rate for Motherwell and the advantage in shots on target and xG, I estimate a home win as the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back "No" (both teams not to score) as the more likely outcome at ~65% vs 35% for BTTS - Yes. Hearts at home keep a clean sheet in 71% of matches with only 29% BTTS this season, and BTTS occurred in 20% of their last 5 home games. Seasonally Hearts score 1.71 and concede 0.53, while Motherwell away have 60% BTTS on the road and season averages of 1.47 scored and 1.13 conceded (away xG 1.46); in their last 5 overall they averaged 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded. Hearts generate more chances (xG 1.71 and 5.88 shots on target) than the visitors (xG 1.46 and 4.13 shots on target), and additionally Hearts conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 home matches versus Motherwell’s 8 conceded in their last 5, which favors No BTTS (clean sheet expected).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and defensive metrics yields expected goals of 1.58 for Hearts (attacking xG 1.71 vs opponent defensive xG 1.45) and 1.24 for Motherwell (attacking xG 1.46 vs home defensive xG 1.02), totaling 2.82 goals. Using a Poisson distribution this total translates to roughly a 77% chance of at least 2 goals and ~54% chance of 3+ goals. Seasonal data confirms a propensity for >1.5 goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 82% of Hearts’ home matches and 73% of Motherwell’s games, while Over 2.5 is only 29% for the hosts and 47% for the visitors (avg ~38%). Hearts keep 71% clean sheets at home, but their actual goals conceded of 0.53 is lower than xG against of 1.02, indicating a risk of conceding despite solid defence. Based on this, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest and most probable signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Hearts appear to be the favorites: at home they score an average of 1.71 goals and concede 0.53, have an xG of 1.71 versus 1.02 for opponents, and collect 2.06 points per match at their stadium, while Motherwell average 1.47 goals scored and 1.13 conceded and 1.27 points away. At half-time Hearts led in 9 matches (53%) versus 5 matches (33%) for Motherwell, and the average goals by half-time are 0.76 for the home side and 0.67 for the visitors, which increases the likelihood of a Hearts lead at the break. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 71% of matches (vs 33% for Motherwell) and have better recent form over the last 5 fixtures (60% wins vs 20% for the visitors), so a lead at half-time has a high probability of being maintained to full-time. Based on this, the strongest signal is Hearts leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1 — 42%), with alternatives such as draw at half-time and Hearts winning (X/1 — 12%) or draw/draw (X/X — 10%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hearts | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hearts is 150% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Hearts · 0.8 pts / match - Motherwell
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hearts is 8% better for: goals scored per match.
1.72 goals / match - Hearts · 1.59 goals / match - Motherwell
Hearts scores in 88% of matches (28 of 32 matches), while Motherwell keeps a clean sheet in 53% (17 of 32 matches).
Motherwell scores in 81% of matches (26 of 32 matches), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 50% (16 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hearts
Over / Under - Motherwell
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Motherwell is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.59 pts / match - Hearts · 1.72 pts / match - Motherwell
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Motherwell - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 44%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (12 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hearts
Motherwell
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Hearts | Liga | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.56 | 2.69 | ▼ 2.41 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 51% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 47% | 51% | ▼ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 29% | ▲ 53% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 78% | 74% | ▼ 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 79% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Hearts 0 - 2 - 0 Motherwell. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hearts vs Motherwell?
The Premiership match finished Hearts 3:1 Motherwell. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hearts and Motherwell?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Hearts won 0, Motherwell won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hearts vs Motherwell?
Hearts score 1.72 goals per game on average and Motherwell 1.59. The Premiership average is 2.69 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Hearts's matches and 44% of Motherwell's.
What form are Hearts and Motherwell in?
Over the last 5 games Hearts have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Motherwell 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hearts vs Motherwell?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.