Hearts vs St. Johnstone: match statistics

Hearts have a very strong signal from their only home match so far: they won it, scored 4 goals and conceded none, registering 7 shots on target. St. Johnstone lost their only away fixture, failed to score and managed just 2 shots on target, while allowing opponents an average xG of 1.41. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.49 xG, whereas the visitors generate 1.06 xG away from home, further strengthening Hearts’ edge in chance quality. The teams’ form over their last five matches is fairly similar, with Hearts collecting 8 points and St. Johnstone 7, but the hosts scored 14 goals during that period compared with their opponents’ 8. The main risk for Hearts is the 11 goals conceded across their last five matches overall; however, St. Johnstone’s poor away attacking efficiency supports a home win.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as both teams scored in 80% of Hearts’ last 5 matches and 40% of St. Johnstone’s. The hosts averaged 2.8 goals scored during this period, but also conceded 2.2, while their average xG against stands at 1.59, giving the visitors a realistic opportunity to find the net. St. Johnstone do have weaker away attacking numbers, averaging 0 goals and 2 shots on target, but their last 5 matches produced 1.6 goals per game and an xG of 1.55. Hearts have a clearly stronger attack, generating 1.71 xG and 5 shots on target per home match, while the visitors’ defence allows an average xG of 1.41. The biggest risk to the pick is St. Johnstone’s season-long failure to score away from home, which is why the advantage of the “BTTS - Yes” scenario over “BTTS - No” remains slight.

In their last 5 matches, Hearts averaged 2.8 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, producing as many as 5.0 total goals per game. Over the same period, St. Johnstone averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, meaning their matches also regularly exceeded two goals. The quality-of-chances indicators provide further support: the visitors generated an average of 1.55 xG, while Hearts allowed opponents 1.59 xG. Over 1.5 offers the strongest edge, as the recent results of both sides and the projected total of 2.75 goals point to a high probability of at least two goals, whereas the 2.5 and 3.5 lines are considerably more balanced.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hearts win at full-time, as St. Johnstone were level at the break in 80% of their last five matches and did not lead in any of them. The visitors scored just 0.2 goals per game before half-time and failed to score in the first half in 80% of those matches, clearly limiting their chances of taking an early lead. Hearts have greater attacking potential: their average xG stands at 1.71 compared with the opponents’ 1.06, while they also average 15 shots and 5 on target, compared with St. Johnstone’s 9 and 2 respectively. After the break, the home side scored an average of 2.2 goals across their last five matches, with the second half producing at least two goals in each of them. Although Hearts led at half-time in 40% of their last five appearances, their lower average of 0.6 goals before the break supports the more cautious X/1 option rather than 1/1.