Hebar 1918 vs Belasitsa: match statistics

Hebar 1918 holds a clear statistical advantage: they sit 10th in the table versus Belasitsa’s 17th and have scored 31 goals this season compared to the visitors’ 15. In the last 5 matches Hebar has scored 5 goals, recorded 3 wins and averaged 2 points per game, while Belasitsa has 4 goals in their last 5 and only 0.8 points per game. At home Hebar generates an average xG of 1.58, 11.33 shots per game and 5.42 shots on target with a conversion rate of 10%, whereas Belasitsa on the road has xG 0.81, 7.42 shots and a 6% conversion. Belasitsa away averages 0.42 goals and fails to score in 58% of matches, while Hebar at home averages 1.17 goals and fail to score in 33% of matches. Considering possession (55% vs 41%), superior efficiency and form (3 wins in the last 5 for Hebar vs 1 for Belasitsa), I back the home win.

Both teams are low-scoring: Hebar averages 0.77 goals scored and concedes 1.69 per match, while Belasitsa only 0.42 scored and 1.83 conceded, which reduces the likelihood of BTTS. xG metrics show Hebar generates xG 1.48 per match versus an actual 0.77 goals, and Belasitsa has xG 0.81 against just 0.42 actual goals — both teams convert poorly, especially Belasitsa. Season BTTS percentages are 38% for Hebar and 33% for Belasitsa versus a league average of 45%, indicating both sides feature less frequently in Goal/Goal matches than the league norm. In the last 5 matches Belasitsa has BTTS 60% versus Hebar 20%, but Hebar in their last five average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded, while Belasitsa average 0.8 scored and 1.2 conceded, suggesting Belasitsa will more often struggle to score. Therefore I assign higher probability to the No Goal scenario: 30% BTTS (Yes) and 70% No Goal, recommendation: No.

Both teams frequently have matches with at least 2 goals: Hebar records 62% of games over 1.5 goals, Belasitsa 67%, and the league average is 2.42 goals per game. On the xG level Hebar creates 1.48 xG per game, while Belasitsa’s opponents concede 1.87 xG, yielding Hebar’s baseline xG ≈(1.48+1.87)/2=1.675; similarly Belasitsa’s baseline xG ≈(0.81+1.67)/2=1.24. Both teams convert roughly 52% of their xG over the season (Hebar 0.77/1.48≈52%, Belasitsa 0.42/0.81≈52%), so I applied a blend of 60% baseline xG and 40% actual goals: Hebar 0.6×1.675+0.4×0.77=1.31, Belasitsa 0.6×1.24+0.4×0.42=0.91, total ≈2.22. With this total I estimate the probability of Over 1.5 at ≈65%, Over 2.5 at ≈38% and Over 3.5 at ≈18%, therefore the strongest signal is over 1.5 (ou_pred_line=1.5, ou_pred_side="over").

I expect a draw or the visitors to have the lead at the break: Hebar led at half-time in 0% of matches and were behind at 45 minutes in 54% of games, while a half-time draw occurred for both teams in roughly 46–50% of matches. Belasitsa scores only 0.42 goals per game on average and has an xG of 0.81, whereas Hebar concedes on average 1.0 goals by half-time, so the visitors are more likely to take the lead in the first half. Hebar, however, has a higher xG (1.48 vs 0.81), more shots on target (5.62 vs 4.0) and a greater conversion rate (8% vs 6%), indicating an advantage in chance creation. In the last five matches Hebar won 60% of games and averaged 0.8 goals after the break, while Belasitsa managed about 0.4 second-half goals in that period, which strengthens the turnaround scenario. Therefore the strongest signal is 2/1: Belasitsa may lead at half-time, and Hebar will come back to win in regular time (HT/FT 2/1).