Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II: match statistics
Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hebar 1918 played Ludogorets II in Second League (Bulgaria). The match was played on 4 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Hebar 1918: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Ludogorets II: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hebar 1918 scores 1.36 and concedes 1.71 goals per match. Ludogorets II scores 1.18 and concedes 1.39. League average: 2.49 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hebar 1918 57%, Ludogorets II 50%. Over 2.5: Hebar 1918 57%, Ludogorets II 46%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 44%.
xG, shots and style
Ludogorets II has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.32. Hebar 1918: 9.7 shots per match, Ludogorets II: 11.6.
Match halves
Hebar 1918: half-time lead 18%, second-half goals 0.64. Ludogorets II: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.61.
Goals by minute
Hebar 1918: 31-45+ (10 goals). Ludogorets II: 76-90+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Second League: 2.49 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 44%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hebar is the favorite in this match: at home they average 11.57 shots and 5.79 on target per game with a conversion rate of 12%, translating to 1.36 goals scored per game and xG 1.63, whereas Ludogorets II on the road average 8.64 shots, 3.86 on target and only 0.43 goals with xG 1.12. The hosts also have the advantage in possession (56% vs 47%) and fail to score less often (Hebar failed to score in 29% of home matches, while the visitors failed to score in 64% of away games), which increases the hosts’ chances. The risk from Hebar comes from a leaky defense: they concede 2.07 goals at home on average and have a negative goal difference at home (-10); additionally they conceded 10 goals in the last 5 matches. However, Ludogorets II have been collecting more points recently (1.2 points per game in the last 5) and have 36% clean sheets away, making a draw a realistic scenario. In summary, the higher volume of scoring opportunities and superior conversion for the hosts (12% vs 5%) favor a Hebar victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Hebar 1918 averages 1.93 goals per match, while Ludogorets II only 0.43, which significantly limits the visitors' scoring chances. Ludogorets II failed to score in 64% of their matches this season, and Hebar failed to score in just 14% of matches, so statistically it is more likely that at least one team (the home side) will be the sole scorer. Although Hebar has a season BTTS rate of 79% and both teams registered BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, Hebar has conceded an average of 2.0 goals in their last five games, creating some opportunities for the visitors. However, Ludogorets II’s low conversion rate of 5% and their average xG of 1.12 versus actual 0.43 goals suggest significant underperformance in chance finishing by the away side. Based on these numbers I back BTTS - No with a probability of 69% versus 31% for Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model gives Hebar an expected 1.64 goals (xG_for_home 1.80 vs xG_against_away 1.48) and Ludogorets II 1.20 (xG_for_away 1.12 vs xG_against_home 1.27), totaling approximately 2.84 goals. Using a Poisson distribution for a total of 2.84, the probability of Over 1.5 is about 77.5% (rounded to 78%), Over 2.5 about 54% and Over 3.5 about 32%. Hebar’s home stats are 1.93 scored and 1.43 conceded per match, 86% of matches >1.5 and 64% >2.5 plus 79% BTTS, which strongly supports a higher-scoring scenario. Ludogorets II score only 0.43 goals on average away, but have xG_for 1.12 with a low conversion rate of 5%, indicating chance creation with poor finishing; their season rates of 29% matches >2.5 and 14% >3.5 limit the probability of a very high-scoring game. Overall the strongest and most reliable signal is Over 1.5 (≈78%), hence the recommendation to play Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I forecast a Half-Time draw and a home win (X/1). Hebar drew at the break in 50% of their home matches, led only in 21%, and the away side was never leading at half-time (0%), which strongly supports a draw at 45 minutes. Nevertheless, the hosts win ultimately more often — they have a 43% home win rate — and possess a clear offensive advantage: average xG 1.8 versus the opponents’ 1.12 and 1.93 goals per home match versus 0.43 for the visitors. Additionally, Hebar averages 7.93 shots on target to the visitors’ 3.86, has a conversion rate of 13% versus 5%, and scores on average 0.93 goals after the break compared to 0.29 for the away team, so X/1 is the most likely outcome.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hebar 1918 | Ludogorets II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 55% | 51% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Ludogorets II is 20% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Hebar 1918 · 1.2 pts / match - Ludogorets II
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hebar 1918 is 15% better for: goals scored per match.
1.36 goals / match - Hebar 1918 · 1.18 goals / match - Ludogorets II
Ludogorets II is 23% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.71 goals / match - Hebar 1918 · 1.39 goals / match - Ludogorets II
Hebar 1918 scores in 75% of matches (21 of 28 matches), while Ludogorets II keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).
Ludogorets II scores in 61% of matches (17 of 28 matches), while Hebar 1918 keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 28 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hebar 1918
Over / Under - Ludogorets II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hebar 1918 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 18% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ludogorets II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 29%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hebar 1918
Ludogorets II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Second League).
Teams vs league
| Hebar 1918 | Liga | Ludogorets II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.07 | 2.49 | • 2.57 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 45% | ▲ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 57% | 44% | ▲ 46% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 33% | ▼ 21% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 70% | ▼ 64% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 72% | • 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Hebar 1918 0 - 0 - 1 Ludogorets II. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II?
The Second League match finished Hebar 1918 1:2 Ludogorets II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II?
Hebar 1918 score 1.36 goals per game on average and Ludogorets II 1.18. The Second League average is 2.49 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Hebar 1918's matches and 50% of Ludogorets II's.
What form are Hebar 1918 and Ludogorets II in?
Over the last 5 games Hebar 1918 have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Ludogorets II 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II?
The statistical background for Hebar 1918 vs Ludogorets II — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.