Hebei Kungfu vs Dalian Huayi: match statistics

Hebei Kungfu come into the match on the back of 4 wins and a draw in their last 5 outings, scoring 8 goals and conceding just 2; Dalian Huayi have won twice in that span, scoring 5 and conceding 6. The hosts’ biggest advantage lies in defence: they concede an average of 0.92 goals at home, while the visitors allow opponents to score an average of 1.75 goals away from home. The difference in the quality of chances conceded is reflected in opponents’ xG of 1.11 against Hebei and 1.57 against Dalian. Both teams average 0.83 goals scored in these conditions and fail to score in 42% of matches, so a draw remains a realistic possibility. However, Dalian’s away record also favours the hosts: they have lost 67% of such matches, making a home win the most likely outcome given Hebei’s current form.

Although both teams scored in 67% and 58% of their matches respectively over the season, that figure has fallen to 40% for each side across their last 5 games. The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Hebei Kungfu’s defence: the hosts have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, an average of 0.4 per game. Dalian Huayi average 0.83 goals away from home and failed to score in 42% of their matches, increasing the risk that the visitors will draw a blank. Hebei have greater attacking potential, averaging 1.67 goals at home compared with the 1.75 goals Dalian concede away, so BTTS - No does not imply a 0-0 draw. The season-long BTTS rates call for caution, but the hosts’ current defensive form and the visitors’ frequent failure to score give a slight edge to the scenario in which at least one team fails to find the net.

At least two goals were scored in 75% of matches involving either team, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick. Hebei average 1.67 goals at home, while Dalian concede 1.75 away; moreover, the visitors have kept a clean sheet in only 8% of such matches. The visitors’ goal-scoring potential is lower: they average 0.83 goals away and failed to score in 42% of matches. An estimate of 1.70 goals for the hosts and 0.85 for the visitors gives a total of 2.55, supporting the Over 1.5 line but offering no equally clear edge on Over 2.5. Caution on higher lines is also warranted by each team’s last five matches, in which Over 2.5 landed in only 40% of cases.

The strongest single scenario is Hebei Kungfu leading at the break and holding on to their advantage until full-time, although a half-time draw is also a realistic possibility. The hosts average 1.00 goal before half-time, while Dalian Huayi concede 1.08 over the same period; the visitors went into the break trailing in 50% of their matches. The difference in full-time results supports the case for Hebei to maintain their lead: they average 1.75 points per match compared with Dalian’s 0.67, with the visitors losing 67% of their matches. In their last five games, the hosts have won four, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 0.4, while the visitors have won twice and conceded an average of 1.2 goals. Uncertainty around the half-time result remains significant, as Hebei were level at the break in 58% of their matches so far, making a draw/hosts win the second-most likely HT/FT outcome.