Hebei Kungfu vs Shenzhen Juniors: match statistics

Shenzhen Juniors sit 2nd in the table and have won 12 of their 22 matches this season, while Hebei Kungfu have recorded 7 victories and occupy ninth place. The visitors are significantly more effective away from home, averaging 1.91 goals per match compared with Hebei’s 0.91 goals at home, while their shot conversion rate stands at 19% versus 8% for the hosts. Hebei are, however, in excellent recent form, having won their last five matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 3. Shenzhen have been equally consistent, recording 4 wins and a draw in their last five outings, along with 11 goals scored. The visitors’ superior attacking quality, an average of 56% possession away from home and 45% clean sheets on the road point to a narrow victory, although Hebei’s strong run increases the risk of a draw.

The seasonal BTTS rate is low and identical for both sides at 36%, well below the league average of 56%. Hebei Kungfu keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches, while Shenzhen Juniors do so in 45%, increasing the likelihood that at least one team fails to score. The hosts concede just 0.82 goals per match on average, while their opponents average 1.26 xG and 3.64 shots on target, so a Shenzhen goal is far from certain. Recent form has been more goal-oriented, with both teams recording BTTS in 60% of their last 5 matches, but each has conceded just 3 goals during that period. The stronger signal remains the full-season defensive data and the historically low share of matches in which both teams score, so BTTS - No is slightly preferred.

Hebei Kungfu average 1.55 goals at home, while Shenzhen Juniors score 1.91 goals away, providing a solid foundation for at least two goals. The hosts generate 1.77 xG per match, while Shenzhen’s defence allows an average of 1.47 xG. In addition, the last five matches involving both teams produced at least three goals in 60% of games each. Their attacking form is very strong: Hebei have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, while Shenzhen have netted 11, with both teams conceding just 3 goals. Over 1.5 goals landed in 73% of Shenzhen’s matches and 55% of Hebei’s games, while both teams have scored over 0.5 goals in 82% of their matches this season. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.70 goals provides a clear margin above this line, even taking into account both teams’ solid recent defensive form.

Hebei Kungfu have won all of their last five matches, while Shenzhen Juniors have recorded four victories and one draw. The hosts were leading at the break in four of their last five games, scoring an average of 1.4 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2. Over the season as a whole, Hebei create more chances, as reflected by their xG of 1.77 compared with Shenzhen’s 1.26, and average 5.45 shots on target per match versus 3.64 for their opponents. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.36 goals and win the second half in 55% of their matches, while Shenzhen lose the second half in 36% of their games. The most likely scenario is therefore that Hebei will capitalise on their current advantage from the outset and maintain their lead until the final whistle.