Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Changchun Yatai: match statistics
Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Changchun Yatai: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Heilongjiang Lava Spring played Changchun Yatai in China League One (China). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Heilongjiang Lava Spring: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Changchun Yatai: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores 1.29 and concedes 0.86 goals per match. Changchun Yatai scores 1.29 and concedes 1.43. League average: 2.27 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 86%, Changchun Yatai 71%. Over 2.5: Heilongjiang Lava Spring 29%, Changchun Yatai 71%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Heilongjiang Lava Spring has higher xG: 1.28 vs 1.12. Heilongjiang Lava Spring: 9.6 shots per match, Changchun Yatai: 8.1.
Match halves
Heilongjiang Lava Spring: half-time lead 29%, second-half goals 0.86. Changchun Yatai: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Heilongjiang Lava Spring: 31-45+ (2 goals). Changchun Yatai: 31-45+ (4 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
China League One: 2.27 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Heilongjiang Lava Spring are unbeaten at home — 0 defeats, 1 win and 3 draws (75% draws), averaging 1.25 goals scored with xG 1.46, producing 11 shots and 5.25 shots on target per match. Changchun Yatai away have a 75% loss rate, average 1.25 goals with 7 shots and 2.25 on target per match, and away xG 0.99 with a shot accuracy of 18%. The hosts show a clearer defensive edge at home — conceding 1.00 goal on average (xG against 1.21), while the visitors concede 1.75 goals away (xG against 1.08). Over the last 5 matches both teams average 1.8 points per game, but Heilongjiang have scored 6 and conceded 4, whereas Changchun have 8 scored and 7 conceded, indicating greater volatility from the visitors. The aggregate data (more shots and shots on target for the hosts, 0% clean-sheet rate for the hosts vs 25% for the visitors) points to an even contest with a slightly higher probability of a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have high BTTS rates: home side 67% of matches with both teams scoring, away side 75%, and in the last 5 fixtures both teams recorded BTTS in 80% each. Defenses are not secure: Heilongjiang concedes on average 1.0 goals per match, Changchun 1.75, with xG against of 1.44 for the hosts and 1.08 for the visitors, confirming both sides give opponents chances. Offensively the hosts average 4.67 shots on target and 9.67 shots per match with xG 1.31, while Changchun has 2.25 shots on target, 7.0 shots and xG 0.99, but a higher conversion rate of 18% versus 14% for the hosts suggests the visitors can turn limited chances into goals. Additionally the visitors have no clean sheets (0% clean sheets this season), the hosts only 33%, and the league average BTTS is 45%, so the strongest signal is for BTTS - Yes — I rate it 82% vs 18%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project approximately 1.35 goals for Heilongjiang (season average 1.33, xG 1.31) and 1.21 goals for Changchun (season average 1.25, xG 0.99), totaling ~2.56 goals. Season percentages show a high share of matches over 2.5: 67% for the home side and 75% for the away side, while BTTS is 67% and 75% respectively, supporting a three-or-more-goal scenario. In the last 5 matches Heilongjiang scored 6 goals (1.2 avg) and Changchun 8 goals (1.6 avg), a combined 2.8 goals per match in this sample, confirming a tendency toward higher-scoring games. The hosts average 4.67 shots on target per match versus 2.25 for the visitors, and cumulative xG is ~2.30 (1.31+0.99), so enough quality chances are created to exceed 2.5; however, over 3.5 is less likely (seasonal over3.5: 0% hosts, 50% guests). Therefore I recommend Over 2.5 as the strongest signal: expected 2.56>2.5 and consolidated stats give an estimated probability for Over 2.5 of about 61%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Heilongjiang win at full-time (X/1), because the home side have markedly better season metrics — 67% home wins and 2.0 pts/match versus Changchun’s 25% wins and 0.75 pts/match. A draw at the break looks probable: the hosts were level at half-time in 100% of their home matches (3 of 3), and the HT draw rate in their last five games was 60%. After the break the home advantage typically increases — they score on average 0.67 goals in the second half and have 100% of matches with more than 0.5 second-half goals, while Changchun concedes on average 0.5 goals in second halves. Additionally Heilongjiang create more chances (xG 1.31 vs 0.99, 9.67 shots vs 7.0 and 4.67 shots on target vs 2.25) and opponents concede on average 1.75 goals per match (1.25 before the break), which raises the probability of a home win after a level first period. For these reasons I select X/1 as the strongest signal.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Heilongjiang Lava Spring | Changchun Yatai | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 52% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring is 66% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.86 goals / match - Heilongjiang Lava Spring · 1.43 goals / match - Changchun Yatai
Heilongjiang Lava Spring scores in 100% of matches (7 of 7 matches), while Changchun Yatai keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
Changchun Yatai scores in 86% of matches (6 of 7 matches), while Heilongjiang Lava Spring keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Over / Under - Changchun Yatai
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Heilongjiang Lava Spring is 29% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.29 pts / match - Heilongjiang Lava Spring · 1 pts / match - Changchun Yatai
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Heilongjiang Lava Spring - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 29% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Changchun Yatai - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Changchun Yatai
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (China League One).
Teams vs league
| Heilongjiang Lava Spring | Liga | Changchun Yatai | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.14 | 2.27 | ▲ 2.71 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 86% | 45% | ▲ 71% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 49% | ▲ 71% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 32% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 71% | 73% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 71% | 67% | ▲ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Changchun Yatai?
The China League One match finished Heilongjiang Lava Spring 2:3 Changchun Yatai. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Changchun Yatai?
Heilongjiang Lava Spring score 1.29 goals per game on average and Changchun Yatai 1.29. The China League One average is 2.27 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 86% of Heilongjiang Lava Spring's matches and 71% of Changchun Yatai's.
What form are Heilongjiang Lava Spring and Changchun Yatai in?
Over the last 5 games Heilongjiang Lava Spring have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Changchun Yatai 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Changchun Yatai?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Heilongjiang Lava Spring vs Changchun Yatai: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.