Henan Jianye vs Chongqing Tongliang Long: match statistics

Henan Jianye have a clear advantage in current form: they have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches, while Chongqing Tongliang Long have managed just 1 point and lost 4 games. At home, the hosts average 1.36 goals scored with an xG of 1.64, whereas the visitors average just 0.75 goals and an xG of 0.86 away from home. The difference in chance creation is significant: Henan average 14.73 shots and 4.73 shots on target per home game, compared with Chongqing’s 7.5 shots and 2.83 shots on target away. The hosts’ defence also looks more reliable, conceding 1.09 goals per match, while their opponents allow opposing teams an xG of 1.61. A draw remains a realistic possibility given Henan’s 27% home draw rate and Chongqing’s 33% away draw rate, but the visitors’ poor run, during which they have scored only 2 goals in their last five matches, supports backing a home win.

A no-goal-for-both-sides scenario is slightly more likely, primarily due to Chongqing Tongliang Long’s limited attacking output: the visitors score an average of 0.75 goals per game this season and just 0.4 across their last five matches. During that period, they found the net only 2 times, while they failed to score in 42% of their league fixtures, clearly increasing the likelihood of a Henan clean sheet. Henan are admittedly on a weaker defensive run, conceding an average of 2.0 goals in their last five appearances, but Chongqing manage only 2.83 shots on target per match compared with the hosts’ 3.5. The home side should have good conditions to score, as their opponents allow an average xG of 1.61, but this does not automatically imply a response from the visitors. BTTS is supported by Henan recording this outcome in 80% of their last five matches, but this contrasts with just 20% for Chongqing; therefore, the stronger selection remains BTTS - No.

The match profile points to a moderate number of goals: Henan average 1.33 goals per match, while Chongqing average just 0.75. The visitors have been particularly unproductive in their last five outings, scoring 2 goals in total—just 0.4 per match—despite recording an average xG of 1.25. Both teams finished below 3.5 goals in 75% of their league matches, and neither has scored more than three goals in a single game this season. Henan could gain an advantage, as they average 10.83 shots compared with Chongqing’s 7.5, but their average xG of 1.22 limits the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. The Under 3.5 goals line therefore has the strongest support from both seasonal trends and the visitors’ limited attacking potential.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome, as Henan were level at the break in 67% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for Chongqing; the visitors failed to score in the first half in as many as 75% of their games. After the interval, the advantage should shift to the hosts: they average 0.92 goals in the second half, while Chongqing average just 0.33, with corresponding second-half records of +4 and -6. Henan’s last five matches further support the home side, as they scored an average of 1.6 goals per game compared with only 0.4 for their opponents, while Chongqing lost 80% of those fixtures. The hosts also have the higher xG, 1.22 versus 0.86, while the visitors’ defence allows an average of 1.61 xG. Therefore, the HT/FT scenario of a draw at half-time followed by a Henan win is the strongest outcome.