Henan Jianye vs Dalian Zhixing: match statistics

I back the home win (1) because Henan has superior home metrics in both attack and defense: on average 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per match with attacking xG 1.67 and xG against 1.08, while Dalian on the road scores only 1.22 and concedes 2.33 with attacking xG 1.46 and xG against 1.57. Additionally, Henan dominates possession (55% vs 47%), attempts more shots (15 vs 12.67) and has a 44% home win rate versus Dalian’s mere 22% away win rate, and the goal difference in home matches is +3 compared to the visitors’ -10. Recent form over the last 5 matches is similar (both teams 1.4 points per game and 10 goals scored), but defensively Dalian is more vulnerable — 11 goals conceded in the last 5 matches versus Henan’s 7. Note that Henan fail to score in 33% of their home matches, while Dalian fail to score in 22% of away matches, which limits the home advantage and raises the draw probability. Considering the edge in xG, possession and lower average goals conceded, I value the chances at 57% for the home side, 21% for a draw and 22% for the away side.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 60% (Henan) and 67% (Dalian), with the league averaging 64% BTTS matches, which favors a Both Teams To Score scenario. In the last 5 meetings BTTS occurred in 100% of cases, with an average of 2.0 goals scored by each side and average goals conceded of 1.4 (Henan) and 2.2 (Dalian), indicating both regularly score and concede. xG and shot data support this picture: Henan has xG 1.83, 16.6 shots and 5.4 on target; Dalian has xG 1.46, 12.67 shots and 4.78 on target; their xG against are 1.16 and 1.57 respectively, so both teams create scoring opportunities. Although Henan has a season clean sheet rate of 40% versus Dalian’s 11%, season averages are 1.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded for Henan, and 1.22 scored and 2.33 conceded for Dalian, which increases the likelihood of an exchange of goals. Based on this I recommend BTTS - Yes; I assess the probability of the Yes outcome at 80% vs 20% for No.

Statistical analysis indicates a high-scoring fixture: Henan averages 1.9 goals per match (xG 1.83) and attempts 16.6 shots, 5.4 on target; Dalian averages 1.22 goals per match (xG 1.46) and concedes 2.33 goals on average. I estimate expected goals as the mean of attack and defensive vulnerability: Henan 1.70 = (1.83 + 1.57)/2, Dalian 1.31 = (1.46 + 1.16)/2, total 3.01 goals. This aligns with historical form: >1.5 goals occurred in 80% of Henan’s matches and 78% of Dalian’s, >2.5 goals in 70% and 67%, and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded >2.5 in 80% and scored in 100% of those games. Given the projected 3.01 goals and the offensive edge (5.4 vs 4.78 shots on target), I assign a high probability to Over 1.5 (88%) and a solid probability to Over 2.5 (72%), while Over 3.5 remains less certain (46%). Therefore the best market to play is Over 1.5 — the combination of xG, historical rates (80%/78% >1.5) and the fact that at least one goal was scored in 100% of matches gives this side the strongest signal.

Henan is the clear favorite: seasonally the home side scores an average of 1.9 goals per match versus 1.22 for Dalian, earning 2.1 points per match compared to 0.78 for the away team and posting a 70% win rate against 22% for the opponent. In the last five fixtures the hosts led at the break in 3 of 5 matches (60%) and averaged 1.4 goals by half-time while conceding just 0.4, whereas the visitors led at the break in only 1 of 5 (20%) and concede an average of 1.4 goals before the break. Chance-creation metrics confirm Henan’s superiority: xG 1.83 versus 1.46 for the visitors, average shots 16.6 vs 12.67 and 5.4 on target vs 4.78, providing greater goal-scoring potential. Additionally, the hosts score an average of 1.4 second-half goals and have won the second half in 80% of cases, so the most probable scenario is Henan leading at the break and maintaining the win to full-time (HT/FT 1/1).