Henan Jianye vs Shanghai Shenhua: match statistics

Shanghai Shenhua are clear favorites: in the last 5 matches the visitors have 4 wins and 1 draw, scoring 10 goals, while Henan Jianye over the same period have 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses and only 2 goals. The visitors average 14.67 shots and 4.33 on target per match with an 11% conversion rate, whereas the home side average 14 shots and 4 on target with a 7% conversion, indicating Shanghai’s superior offensive efficiency. In terms of chance quality Henan’s home xG is 1.59 versus the visitors’ away xG of 1.51, but Shanghai convert that into an average of 1.67 goals away while Henan score 1.00 at home—so the visitors finish created chances better. Defensively Henan concede 1.00 goal at home on average and Shanghai 1.33 away; however the season totals of 16 scored and 8 conceded for Shanghai versus 6-7 for Henan, and PPG in the last 5 matches 2.6 vs 0.4, favor the visitors. Considering efficiency (FTS 0% for visitors vs 33% for hosts), form and scoring trend, I tip the visitors to win.

Shanghai Shenhua gives a very strong signal for BTTS - Yes: season BTTS is 100%, and 60% in the last 5 matches, indicating their games frequently end with goals at both ends. Henan Jianye has a season BTTS of 50% and a season clean sheet rate of 50%, but in the last 5 matches they average only 0.4 goals per game (2 goals in 5 matches) with 1.0 goals conceded on average, which weakens the hosts' attacking conviction. xG and shooting stats support an exchange of goals: Henan has xG_for 2.19 and 8.5 shots on target per game, while Shanghai has xG_against_away 1.69 and away xG_for 1.51, so both teams create quality scoring opportunities. Additionally the league BTTS rate is 54% and Shanghai’s form in the last 5 (dwwww) shows an offensive trend; therefore I assign 70% probability to BTTS "Yes" and 30% "No", pick: Yes.

The xG-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Henan (average attacking xG 2.19 vs xG conceded to Shanghai 1.69) and 1.45 for Shanghai (attacking xG 1.51 vs xG conceded to Henan 1.38), for a total of 3.39 goals. This season Henan averages 2.75 goals per game, Shanghai 1.67; additionally Henan records 8.5 shots on target on average versus Shanghai’s 4.33 and a higher conversion rate 14% vs 11%, which increases the likelihood of goals. Seasonal indicators show over 1.5 in 75% of Henan’s matches and 100% of Shanghai’s matches, while over 2.5 occurs in 50% of Henan’s matches and 33% of Shanghai’s; however, note that in the last 5 games Henan has averaged 0.4 goals compared to Shanghai’s 2.0, which lowers the home side’s form. With a mean of 3.39 from a Poisson distribution P(≥2)≈88%, P(≥3)≈66%, P(≥4)≈44%, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (high probability ~88%) and Over 2.5 also has an edge, whereas Over 3.5 is less certain.

Season-long metrics favor Henan: the hosts score an average of 2.75 goals per match versus Shanghai’s 1.67, have a higher xG (2.19 vs 1.51) and record 8.5 shots on target per game compared to the visitors’ 4.33. At half-time Henan averages 1.5 goals and concedes only 0.25, leading at the break in 50% of matches, while Shanghai score 0.67 and concede 0.67 by half-time. However, the last 5 fixtures indicate the visitors’ form: Henan have 0% wins and average 0.4 goals per game in their last five, while Shanghai have an 80% win rate and average 2.0 goals per game, which reduces certainty about the final result. Nonetheless, the advantage in xG, shots and half-time statistics (Henan have 8 points secured at half-time versus Shanghai’s 4, and 7 Henan goals before the break compared to 4 for the visitors) suggests the hosts will lead at the break and maintain the win after 90 minutes. Therefore I assign the highest probability (44%) to the 1/1 scenario; I also give 19% to X/1 and 10% to X/X, with the remaining options totaling 27%.