Henan Jianye vs Shenyang Urban: match statistics

I back the home win. Henan have scored 6 goals this season and average 0.75 goals per home match, while Shenyang have 7 goals this season but only 0.4 goals on the road; hosts also have a 25% home win rate versus 0% away wins for the visitors. xG is similar — 1.46 for Henan at home versus 1.43 for Shenyang away — however the visitors concede more high-quality chances (xG against 1.59 vs 1.29). Visitors register more shots on target (4.2 vs 3.25), but their conversion rate is only 3% compared to the hosts’ 6%, and Shenyang fail to score in 60% of their away matches (FTS 60%), which limits their real threat. Considering recent form (Henan 0.2 points in the last 5, Shenyang 0.8) and a high away loss rate for the visitors (80%), I assess the probabilities as 62% for Henan, 23% for a draw and 15% for Shenyang.

I assess BTTS probability at 30% (Yes) and 70% (No); pick: No. Henan averages 1.67 goals per season while the opponent concedes 1.8 goals seasonally, which theoretically favors a home goal, but in the last 5 matches Henan has scored only 1 goal (0.2 per match), so their current offensive efficiency is significantly reduced. Shenyang has a seasonal average of 0.4 goals and a shot conversion of 3%, despite xG 1.43 and 13 shots per match — they create chances but rarely convert them. Seasonal BTTS and clean sheet rates are divergent: Henan 33% BTTS and 33% clean sheets, Shenyang 40% BTTS and 0% clean sheets away; given the poor current effectiveness of the hosts (0.2 g/5) and the visitors’ low conversion, a No Goal outcome is more likely. In a simplified aggregation of these figures I estimate BTTS at approximately 30%, hence the recommendation: No.

I estimate Henan will score about 1.41 goals (home xG 1.23 and away xG conceded 1.59, (1.23+1.59)/2 = 1.41), and Shenyang about 1.37 goals (away xG 1.43 and home xG conceded 1.31, (1.43+1.31)/2 = 1.37), yielding ~2.78 goals total. This season Henan averages 1.67 goals for and 0.67 against, while Shenyang averages only 0.4 for and 1.8 against; additionally the visitors’ shot conversion rate is 3% versus 15% for the hosts, which explains why the visitors have a higher xG (1.43) despite a low goals average (0.4). Both teams have 100% of matches with at least one goal, and the >1.5 goals rate is 67% for the hosts and 60% for the visitors; with an expected 2.78 goals versus the league average 2.86, this is a strong signal for Over, especially at the 2.5 line. Considering the hosts have 67% of matches >2.5, the visitors 40%, and the projected 2.78 goals, I assess the probability of Over 2.5 at about 63%, while Over 3.5 is unlikely (seasonal 0% for hosts and 20% for visitors), hence Over 3.5 ~12%. Therefore the best play is Over 2.5: I combine the projected 2.78 goals, the hosts’ high conversion rate 15% and the fact the visitors have 0% clean sheets seasonally, which increases the chance of at least three goals.

Henan led at half-time in 67% of their matches, scoring on average 1.0 goals before the break and conceding 0.0 at half-time, which strongly supports a home lead after 45 minutes. Over the full match Henan averages 1.67 goals scored versus Shenyang’s 0.4, and averages 2.0 points per home game compared to the visitors’ 0.2 points, so holding the lead to the end is likely. Shenyang have a higher xG (1.43 vs the home side’s 1.23), but their shot conversion is only 3% versus Henan’s 15% on a similar number of shots (13.0 vs 11.33), which limits their realistic ability to overturn a deficit. Considering the guests concede on average 1.4 goals by half-time and that historically scenarios with the home team leading at the break occur in 67% of cases, I project the highest probability for 1/1 (50%), lower for 1/X (13%) and small for 1/2 (4%). Options with the visitors leading at half-time are effectively 0% (the home side have never been behind at half-time in the data — 0%), therefore I select 1/1 as the strongest signal.