Heracles vs De Graafschap: match statistics

Heracles are top of the home league table, having won all 4 matches played so far, while De Graafschap sit 19th, are still without a win and have lost 3 of their 4 matches this season. The hosts have scored 17 goals in their last five appearances and won 4 times, whereas the visitors have conceded as many as 14 goals during this period, managing only 2 draws. At home, Heracles average 3 goals, generate 3.49 xG and record 17 shots on target per match, clearly outperforming De Graafschap’s away figures of 1 goal, 1.60 xG and 3 shots on target. The visitors have yet to keep a clean sheet, while Heracles also concede an average of 2 goals at home, so there is a chance of the away side scoring. However, the clear superiority in chance quality and current form points to a home win.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is very strong, as both teams have seen this outcome in 100% of their matches this season and in 100% of their last five games. Heracles have not kept a single clean sheet, while their average of 4.5 goals conceded significantly increases De Graafschap’s chances of scoring. The visitors have also failed to keep a clean sheet, conceding an average of 1.5 goals this season and as many as 2.8 in their last five matches, while Heracles have scored 3.4 goals per game during this period. Their attacking potential is further supported by xG figures of 2.19 for Heracles and 1.91 for De Graafschap across their last five appearances. In addition, the league has a high BTTS rate of 78%, making a match with a goal for each side more likely than a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Heracles have scored an average of 3.4 goals in their last five matches, while De Graafschap conceded as many as 2.8 goals per game during this period. The visitors should also contribute, as they create an average of 1.91 xG, while Heracles allow opponents 1.35 xG. Both teams have scored in 100% of their last five matches, while Over 2.5 goals landed in all five of Heracles’ games and in 80% of De Graafschap’s matches. Further support for a high-scoring game comes from the league average of 3.85 goals per match, with 75% of games producing at least three goals. The strongest signal, however, remains Over 1.5, as both teams cleared this line in 100% of their available matches this season.

Heracles are showing clearly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 3.4 goals, while De Graafschap have failed to win any of their games and conceded an average of 2.8 goals. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the hosts held a lead at the break in 80% of their last five matches, whereas the visitors did so on none of those occasions. Heracles also averaged 2.0 goals scored before half-time, compared with 0.8 for De Graafschap. The hosts’ defence has looked solid during this phase, conceding just 0.2 goals on average before the break, while the visitors conceded 1.2. Heracles also create more chances over the course of the match, averaging 21.5 shots and 5.5 on target, compared with 15.5 and 3.0 for their opponents. A scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time and maintain their advantage until full-time is therefore the most likely outcome, although the high scoring averages of both teams increase the risk of a late response from the visitors.