Heracles vs NAC Breda: match statistics
Heracles, despite their difficult league position (17th), demonstrate significantly better offensive efficiency in home matches, scoring an average of 2 goals per game with a high shot conversion rate (14%). The hosts have the edge in expected goals (xG 1.58 vs 1.32) and a much stronger home record (40% wins) compared to NAC Breda's utterly dismal away form (0% wins on the road). NAC Breda has failed to win any of their last five matches and fails to score in half of their away games (FTS% 50%), which, coupled with the hosts' poor defense, could lead to a draw. Heracles has a realistic chance of victory, although their defense remains problematic (conceding an average of 2.4 goals at home). Both teams are in poor form, but the home advantage and NAC's complete lack of away wins favor a Heracles win, with a high probability of a draw due to the defensive issues of both sides.
Heracles vs NAC Breda: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Heracles played NAC Breda in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 14 February 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Heracles: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. NAC Breda: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Heracles scores 1.41 and concedes 2.59 goals per match. NAC Breda scores 1.05 and concedes 1.64. League average: 3.24 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Heracles 59%, NAC Breda 55%. Over 2.5: Heracles 77%, NAC Breda 55%. League level: BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
NAC Breda has higher xG: 1.45 vs 1.26. Heracles: 11.1 shots per match, NAC Breda: 13.4.
Match halves
Heracles: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.73. NAC Breda: half-time lead 23%, second-half goals 0.59.
Goals by minute
Heracles: 46-60 (7 goals). NAC Breda: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.24 goals per match, BTTS 64%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Heracles, despite their difficult league position (17th), demonstrate significantly better offensive efficiency in home matches, scoring an average of 2 goals per game with a high shot conversion rate (14%). The hosts have the edge in expected goals (xG 1.58 vs 1.32) and a much stronger home record (40% wins) compared to NAC Breda's utterly dismal away form (0% wins on the road). NAC Breda has failed to win any of their last five matches and fails to score in half of their away games (FTS% 50%), which, coupled with the hosts' poor defense, could lead to a draw. Heracles has a realistic chance of victory, although their defense remains problematic (conceding an average of 2.4 goals at home). Both teams are in poor form, but the home advantage and NAC's complete lack of away wins favor a Heracles win, with a high probability of a draw due to the defensive issues of both sides.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Heracles | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Heracles is 34% better for: goals scored per match.
1.41 goals / match - Heracles · 1.05 goals / match - NAC Breda
NAC Breda is 58% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.59 goals / match - Heracles · 1.64 goals / match - NAC Breda
Heracles scores in 64% of matches (14 of 22 matches), while NAC Breda keeps a clean sheet in 9% (2 of 22 matches).
NAC Breda scores in 59% of matches (13 of 22 matches), while Heracles keeps a clean sheet in 5% (1 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Heracles
Over / Under - NAC Breda
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
NAC Breda is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.86 pts / match - Heracles · 0.95 pts / match - NAC Breda
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Heracles - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 23%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
NAC Breda - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 23% of matches and wins 14%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -5 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): -11 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Heracles
NAC Breda
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| Heracles | Liga | NAC Breda | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.00 | 3.24 | ▼ 2.68 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 59% | 64% | ▼ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 77% | 62% | ▼ 55% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 5% | 19% | ▼ 9% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 91% | 83% | • 82% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 95% | 84% | ▼ 73% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Heracles 0 - 0 - 1 NAC Breda. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Heracles vs NAC Breda?
The Eredivisie match finished Heracles 0:1 NAC Breda. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Heracles score 1.41 goals per game on average and NAC Breda 1.05. The Eredivisie average is 3.24 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 59% of Heracles's matches and 55% of NAC Breda's.
What form are Heracles and NAC Breda in?
Over the last 5 games Heracles have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and NAC Breda 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
The statistical background for Heracles vs NAC Breda — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.