Hércules vs Águila: match statistics
Águila is the clear favorite in this match. Hércules is in disastrous form with a 76% home loss rate, a goal difference of -30, and only a 12% home win rate. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring just 4 goals while conceding as many as 14. Águila, on the other hand, demonstrates solid away effectiveness with a 47% win rate, a higher average xG (1.34 vs 1.12 Hércules), and 37% clean sheets. Although the visitors have experienced a slight dip in form recently, their qualitative and statistical advantage is substantial enough to make an Águila victory the most probable scenario. The disparity in efficiency between the two sides is overwhelming, making an away win highly likely.
Hércules vs Águila: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hércules played Águila in Salvadoran Primera División (El Salvador). The match was played on 26 March 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Hércules: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Águila: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hércules scores 0.89 and concedes 2.31 goals per match. Águila scores 1.36 and concedes 1.26. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hércules 60%, Águila 54%. Over 2.5: Hércules 63%, Águila 51%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Águila has higher xG: 1.41 vs 1.06. Hércules: 6.6 shots per match, Águila: 9.3.
Match halves
Hércules: half-time lead 11%, second-half goals 0.49. Águila: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.64.
Goals by minute
Hércules: 76-90+ (7 goals). Águila: 16-30 (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Salvadoran Primera División: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-3. Average goals 3.67, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Águila is the clear favorite in this match. Hércules is in disastrous form with a 76% home loss rate, a goal difference of -30, and only a 12% home win rate. The hosts have lost 4 of their last 5 games, scoring just 4 goals while conceding as many as 14. Águila, on the other hand, demonstrates solid away effectiveness with a 47% win rate, a higher average xG (1.34 vs 1.12 Hércules), and 37% clean sheets. Although the visitors have experienced a slight dip in form recently, their qualitative and statistical advantage is substantial enough to make an Águila victory the most probable scenario. The disparity in efficiency between the two sides is overwhelming, making an away win highly likely.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Hércules has a very high season-long BTTS rate (70%) and a low clean sheet percentage (20%), which, combined with an average of 1.4 goals conceded, favors opponents scoring. On paper, both sides appear capable of finding the net: the expected goal values and xG hover around 1.2–1.3 for each team (Hércules: 1.6 GF and 1.49 xG vs Águila 1.11 GA and 1.06 xGA; Águila: 1.11 GF and 1.34 xG vs Hércules 1.4 GA and 1.14 xGA). In the last 5 matches, Hércules has been conceding heavily (2.8 GA; 2.04 xGA), significantly boosting the likelihood of an Águila goal. A downside for BTTS is the recent dip in offensive form (Hércules 0.8 goals/match, Águila 0.6), but Águila still generates decent xG (1.29), and Hércules has a weak defense. Additionally, the league boasts a high BTTS level (55%), supporting a goals from both sides scenario. Overall, the signals lean slightly towards 'BTTS: Yes,' though it's not an overwhelming advantage due to the weaker current attacking efficiency.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The expected goals model combines average goals and xG metrics: Hércules averages 1.6 goals scored at home with 1.49 xG, while Águila averages 1.11 goals away with 1.34 xG, resulting in approximately 2.65 total goals per match. The Over 1.5 market is strongly supported by high goal frequencies: Hércules has 85% of matches with Over 1.5, and Águila 63%, alongside a 100% Over 0.5 for the home side. Furthermore, Hércules' defense appears vulnerable in short-term form (last 5 matches: 2.8 goals conceded and 2.04 xG against), which raises the probability of an Águila goal. The 2.5 line is more balanced, as although Hércules frequently plays Over 2.5 (65% seasonally and 80% in the last 5), Águila has only 37% Over 2.5 this season and typically limits goal counts. Meanwhile, Under 3.5 remains the favorite (seasonally 75–84% Under 3.5), making the clearest data signal the safer Over 1.5.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A draw at half-time is the most probable outcome, as Águila very frequently draws at HT (47%), also has low goal production in the first half (0.37) and a high rate of first-half clean sheets (74%). Although Hércules has good seasonal first-half metrics (53% lead at the break, 1.05 goals per first half), in their last 5 matches they have significantly decreased their pre-break efficiency (0.4 goals). The likelihood of the visitors turning the match around after the break increases, as Hércules's form is poor (last 5: 0.2 PPG and a concerning 2.8 goals conceded per match), suggesting issues with holding onto a result. Águila is more defensively stable (xGA 1.06; CS 37%), while the second half is statistically high-scoring for both sides (over 0.5 in 2H: 79% vs 84%). This supports the scenario of X at half-time and an Águila win by the final whistle.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hércules | Águila | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 45% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Águila is 400% better for: last-5 form.
0.2 pts / match - Hércules · 1 pts / match - Águila
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Águila is 53% better for: goals scored per match.
0.89 goals / match - Hércules · 1.36 goals / match - Águila
Águila is 83% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.31 goals / match - Hércules · 1.26 goals / match - Águila
Hércules scores in 66% of matches (23 of 35 matches), while Águila keeps a clean sheet in 28% (11 of 39 matches).
Águila scores in 77% of matches (30 of 39 matches), while Hércules keeps a clean sheet in 9% (3 of 35 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hércules
Over / Under - Águila
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Águila is 101% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.74 pts / match - Hércules · 1.49 pts / match - Águila
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hércules - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 11% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Águila - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 0% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -9 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (19). Late-goal balance (76-90): -10 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hércules
Águila
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Salvadoran Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Hércules | Liga | Águila | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.20 | 2.73 | ▼ 2.62 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 56% | ▼ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 53% | ▼ 51% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 9% | 27% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 68% | • 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 78% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- ÁguilaGoalTomas Granitto
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Hércules 0 - 0 - 3 Águila. Average goals 3.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hércules vs Águila?
The Salvadoran Primera División match finished Hércules 0:1 Águila. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hércules and Águila?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Hércules won 0, Águila won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hércules vs Águila?
Hércules score 0.89 goals per game on average and Águila 1.36. The Salvadoran Primera División average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Hércules's matches and 54% of Águila's.
What form are Hércules and Águila in?
Over the last 5 games Hércules have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Águila 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hércules vs Águila?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.