Hércules vs Firpo: match statistics

Firpo is the clear favorite: the visitors have 30 wins and 89 goals this season, while Hércules has only 8 wins and 40 goals; the home side’s goal difference is -29, whereas Firpo’s away goal difference is +24. Offensively Firpo averages 2.36 goals away with 9.68 shots and 4.5 shots on target and a conversion rate of 24%, while Hércules at home averages 0.9 goals, 6.85 shots and 3.3 on target with a 13% conversion. Defensively the gap is also significant: Hércules concedes 2.35 goals at home on average with xG against 1.5, whereas Firpo concedes 1.27 away with xG against 1.22 and records 18% clean sheets compared to 5% for the hosts. Form confirms the visitors’ advantage — Firpo have won 4 of their last 5, scored 7 and conceded 2 with a points average of 2.4, while Hércules in their last 5 have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, scored 9 and conceded 7 with a points average of 1.6. Considering Firpo’s higher xG (1.5 vs 1.13 for Hércules), better quality of chances and conversion (24% vs 13%) and the high share of home matches in which Hércules fail to score (35%), I predict an away win.

I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 67%. The basis is xG values: Hércules has xG_for 1.98 while Firpo has xG_against 1.22, implying a high (~86%) chance Hércules will score; simultaneously Firpo has xG_for 1.50 against Hércules xG_against 1.16, giving ~78% chance Firpo will score. The product of these approximations (≈67%) and Firpo’s season BTTS rate of 73% plus an average of 2.36 goals per match support the both teams to score scenario. Counterarguments are Hércules’ home clean sheets in 52% of matches and a home BTTS season rate of only 35%, and the fact Firpo has BTTS 0% in the last 5 matches with an average of 0.4 goals conceded, which reduces confidence. Considering the strong xG signal and Firpo’s high season BTTS, but respecting Hércules’ defensive numbers, I assign BTTS 67% versus 33% No Goal.

Averaging attacking and defensive strength by xG yields expected goals of 1.60 for Hércules ((1.98 + 1.22)/2) and 1.33 for Firpo ((1.50 + 1.16)/2), giving a total of 2.93 goals. The Poisson distribution for a mean of 2.93 translates to approximately a 79% chance of Over 1.5, 56% for Over 2.5 and 34% for Over 3.5. Seasonal stats support this picture: Firpo has 73% of matches above 2.5 and 91% above 1.5, Hércules has 39% and 65% respectively, and both teams record Over 0.5 in 87% (Hércules) and 100% (Firpo) of matches. Although Hércules keeps a clean sheet in 52% of matches, Firpo averages 2.36 goals per game and 73% of its matches see goals from both sides, which increases the likelihood of at least three goals. Therefore the best and strongest line to play appears to be Over 2.5 (side: over), since the xG signal (2.93) and seasonal Over 2.5 shares indicate about a 56% probability for this option.

Firpo led at the break in 50% of their matches, while Hércules did so in only 22%; the average goals by half are 0.95 for Firpo versus 0.39 for Hércules, which favors the visitors before the interval. Over the full match Firpo average 2.36 goals versus 1.61 for Hércules, and in the last five meetings the visitors won 80% of matches compared to 40% for the home side, so a full-time victory for Firpo appears more likely. Although Hércules generate higher xG (1.98 vs 1.50), the home side’s shot conversion is 13% versus 24% for Firpo, which explains Firpo’s advantage in goals scored. The second half also favors Firpo — they score on average 1.41 goals after the break versus 1.22 for Hércules, and Firpo’s matches feature second-half goals in 91% of cases versus 83% for the home team, so maintaining or extending a lead is probable. On this basis the most likely scenario is Firpo leading at half-time and winning the match (2/2) — I assign that a 32% probability; alternatively a half-time draw and a Firpo win (X/2) I rate at 24%.