Herediano vs San Carlos: match statistics
Herediano vs San Carlos: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Herediano played San Carlos in Primera División FPD (Costa Rica). The match was played on 19 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Herediano: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. San Carlos: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Herediano scores 1.39 and concedes 0.97 goals per match. San Carlos scores 1.00 and concedes 1.61. League average: 2.47 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Herediano 45%, San Carlos 42%. Over 2.5: Herediano 45%, San Carlos 42%. League level: BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 48%.
xG, shots and style
Herediano has higher xG: 1.53 vs 0.99. Herediano: 12.5 shots per match, San Carlos: 8.1.
Match halves
Herediano: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.76. San Carlos: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.42.
Goals by minute
Herediano: 31-45+ (11 goals). San Carlos: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División FPD: 2.47 goals per match, BTTS 49%, Over 2.5 48%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Herediano to win, as the home advantage is clear in the numbers. Herediano scores an average of 1.81 goals per home match with xG 1.79 and records 4.63 shots on target per game, while San Carlos away averages only 1.13 goals with xG 0.86 and 2.75 shots on target. Defensively Herediano concedes 1.13 goals per home match and has a 38% clean sheet rate, whereas San Carlos concedes 1.88 goals away with just a 6% clean sheet rate; in the last 5 matches the visitors conceded 11 goals, the hosts 6. Form supports the edge: Herediano won 3 of their last 5 matches and averages 1.8 points per game in that period, while San Carlos won only 1 of 5 and averages 0.6 points. Considering the differences in xG, shooting efficiency and defense, I estimate probabilities of 70% home win, 18% draw and 12% away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes with a 65% vs 35% edge because seasonal and last-5 data favor both teams scoring. San Carlos concedes 1.88 goals on average this season and 2.20 in the last 5, while scoring 1.13 seasonally and 1.20 in the last 5, indicating consistent goals conceded and scored. Herediano has xG 1.10 versus opponent xG 1.24; they concede 1.35 goals seasonally, and in the last 5 they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded, with their last 5 fixtures showing 80% BTTS despite a 24% seasonal rate. Additionally, San Carlos registers 2.75 shots on target with a 15% conversion versus Herediano’s 2.35 shots on target and 10% conversion; given the higher average goals conceded (1.88 vs 1.35) and the hosts’ recent form, the both-teams-to-score scenario is the likelier outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are 1.50 for Herediano and 1.10 for San Carlos, totaling 2.60. Basis is xG: Herediano has xG for 1.10 and San Carlos xG against 1.65 — their predictive average yields about 1.50 for the home side; conversely San Carlos xG for 0.86 versus Herediano xG against 1.24 gives around 1.10 for the away side. Seasonally, Over 1.5 occurred in 76% of Herediano’s matches and 75% of San Carlos’s matches, and in the last 5 fixtures Herediano has last5 xG_for 1.8 and scored 7 goals, which increases the likelihood of more goals. A Poisson model with combined lambda=2.60 gives ~73% chance for Over 1.5, ~48% for Over 2.5 and ~26% for Over 3.5. Additionally, San Carlos concedes on average 1.88 goals per match (53 in the season) and Herediano has only 29% clean sheets, therefore I recommend an Over 1.5 bet as the strongest signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The statistically most likely scenario is Herediano leading at half-time and winning the match (1/1), because San Carlos, as the away team, lose by half-time in 63% of their matches, while hosts lead at the break in 29% of their games. San Carlos concede on average 1.19 goals before the break versus 0.53 conceded by Herediano, which increases the probability of a home goal in the first half. Herediano is in better form over the last five matches: 'llwww' with a 60% win rate and an average of 1.8 points per game, whereas San Carlos have a 20% win rate and 0.6 points over their last five. xG also favors the hosts: xG_for 1.10 versus 0.86 and xG_against 1.24 versus 1.65 for San Carlos, indicating superiority in chance creation and better defending. Based on these figures I assign 38% to 1/1 as the strongest signal, with secondary options X/1 at 17% and X/X at 10%; scenarios with the away side leading at the break are collectively unlikely (15%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Herediano | San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Herediano is 200% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Herediano · 0.6 pts / match - San Carlos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Herediano is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.39 goals / match - Herediano · 1 goals / match - San Carlos
Herediano is 66% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.97 goals / match - Herediano · 1.61 goals / match - San Carlos
Herediano scores in 76% of matches (25 of 33 matches), while San Carlos keeps a clean sheet in 18% (6 of 33 matches).
San Carlos scores in 58% of matches (19 of 33 matches), while Herediano keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Herediano
Over / Under - San Carlos
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Herediano is 42% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.42 pts / match - Herediano · 1 pts / match - San Carlos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Herediano - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
San Carlos - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Herediano
San Carlos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División FPD).
Teams vs league
| Herediano | Liga | San Carlos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.36 | 2.47 | ▲ 2.61 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 45% | 49% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 48% | ▼ 42% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 30% | ▼ 18% |
| Goal before half-time | • 70% | 69% | ▲ 73% |
| Goal after half-time | • 73% | 74% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Herediano 1 - 1 - 1 San Carlos. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Herediano vs San Carlos?
The Primera División FPD match finished Herediano 1:0 San Carlos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Herediano and San Carlos?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Herediano won 1, San Carlos won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Herediano vs San Carlos?
Herediano score 1.39 goals per game on average and San Carlos 1.00. The Primera División FPD average is 2.47 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 45% of Herediano's matches and 42% of San Carlos's.
What form are Herediano and San Carlos in?
Over the last 5 games Herediano have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and San Carlos 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Herediano vs San Carlos?
The statistical background for Herediano vs San Carlos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.