Hertha BSC vs Greuther Fürth: match statistics

Hertha BSC sit top of the table and have won all 6 of their league matches so far, while 12th-placed Greuther Fürth have a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 12 goals and taken 13 points, compared with 6 goals and 5 points for the visitors, which clearly favors Hertha. At home, Hertha average 3 goals per match with a shot conversion rate of 20%, while Fürth concede an average of 1.67 goals away from home and allow opponents chances worth 2.03 xG. The visitors can still pose a threat, however: away from home, they average 2 goals from 1.78 xG, and Hertha have yet to keep a clean sheet at home. Even so, the hosts’ advantage in results and attacking efficiency makes a Hertha win the most likely outcome.

BTTS occurred in 67% of Hertha’s home matches and 100% of Greuther Fürth’s away matches, compared with 63% across the league. Neither team kept a clean sheet in either sample, and the hosts conceded an average of 2.0 goals, strongly supporting the visitors’ chances of scoring. Hertha also have good scoring prospects: their average home xG is 1.44, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth 2.03 xG. Over their last five matches, Hertha scored an average of 2.4 goals and Fürth conceded 2.2; in addition, BTTS landed in 5 of the hosts’ last 5 matches and 3 of the visitors’ last 5. The main risk is that Hertha failed to score in 33% of their home matches, but the balance of evidence points to both teams scoring.

Hertha have averaged 2.4 goals scored across their last 5 matches, while Greuther Fürth conceded 2.2 goals per game over the same period, pointing to strong scoring potential for the hosts. The visitors could also get on the scoresheet: they averaged 2.0 goals scored in their matches, while Hertha conceded 2.0 goals per game. The teams’ average xG figures of 1.44 and 1.78, along with the league average of 3.31 goals, also support a high total. The strongest signal, however, comes at the 1.5-goal line: it was surpassed in 100% of the visitors’ matches and 67% of the hosts’ matches, while all 5 of Hertha’s last matches finished with at least 3 goals. Therefore, I’m backing Over 1.5 goals, though I’d be cautious with higher lines, as only 33% of each team’s matches went Over 2.5 goals.

In their last five matches, Hertha have won four times and scored an average of 2.4 goals, while Fürth have recorded one win and conceded an average of 2.2 goals. A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Hertha were level at the break in all four of their most recent matches with available data, and over the shorter seasonal sample both teams were level at half-time in two of three matches. The hosts’ performances after the break in recent games support a home win at full-time: they scored an average of 1.75 goals in the second half and won it in all four matches with available data. Confidence in the pick is tempered by the fact that, over the shorter seasonal sample, Hertha won none of their three matches and Fürth lost none of theirs. However, the hosts’ advantage in recent form points to an X/1 scenario.