Hertha BSC vs Heidenheim: match statistics

Hertha BSC remain unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 3 wins and 2 draws, while Heidenheim have lost 2 games during that period. The hosts have scored 10 goals and conceded just 6 in those matches, giving them a clearly better defensive record than the 10 goals conceded by the visitors. Hertha have averaged 2.2 points per game across their last five league fixtures, compared with Heidenheim’s 1.4. Both teams have scored 10 goals in their last five appearances, but the hosts’ greater consistency and their clean sheet in the only match played so far this season support a Hertha victory. Heidenheim can be effective in front of goal, as shown by the 4 goals scored in their opening match of the season; however, the 3 goals conceded in that game and their weaker run of form increase the risk of an away defeat.

The strongest signal in favor of BTTS comes from the last five matches: both teams recorded this outcome in 80% of games, well above the league average of 67%. During this period, Hertha scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 1.2, while Heidenheim scored 2.0 and allowed opponents to score 2.0 goals. Their attacking potential is supported by xG figures from the last five matches: 1.69 for Hertha and 1.38 for Heidenheim, while the visitors allowed their opponents 1.57 xG. Hertha also has 0% clean sheets in the season data, along with a very high 2.33 xG conceded per match, which increases the visitors’ chances of scoring. Although Heidenheim’s season data is incomplete, the current form of both teams and their regular record of 10 goals each in their last five appearances support a scenario in which both sides find the net — BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal.

Both teams have averaged 2.0 goals scored over their last 5 matches, with their games producing 3.2 and 4.0 goals per match, respectively. Hertha conceded 1.2 goals per game during this period, while Heidenheim conceded as many as 2.0, reinforcing the outlook for goals at both ends. Hertha’s xG stands at 1.69, compared with 1.57 xG conceded by Heidenheim’s opponents, while Heidenheim averages 1.38 xG against 1.22 xG conceded by Hertha. Furthermore, at least 3 goals were scored in 60% of each team’s last five matches, and both teams found the net in 80% of those games. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.10 goals is well above this line, providing a substantial safety margin.

Hertha are in better current form: over their last five matches, they averaged 2.0 goals scored, conceded 1.2, and remained unbeaten, while Heidenheim also scored 2.0 per game but allowed opponents to score 2.0. The hosts won three of those five fixtures and collected an average of 2.2 points, compared with two wins and 1.4 points for the visitors. Hertha led at the break in 40% of their recent matches, and in the only available home fixture, they were ahead at half-time, having scored three goals before the interval. Their attacking potential is further supported by an average of 20 shots, six shots on target, and an xG of 2.05 per home game. Heidenheim also tend to start aggressively, so scenarios involving a draw or a lead for the visitors at half-time retain a significant share. However, Hertha's advantage in results and their clearly stronger second-half defence, having conceded just 0.2 goals per match across their last five games, support the HT/FT pick of a home lead at half-time and a home win at full-time.