HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa: match statistics
HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
HFX Wanderers FC played Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League (Canada). The match was played on 1 July 2026. Venue: Wanderers Grounds. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
HFX Wanderers FC: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Atlético Ottawa: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
HFX Wanderers FC scores 1.27 and concedes 1.45 goals per match. Atlético Ottawa scores 1.50 and concedes 1.80. League average: 2.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: HFX Wanderers FC 55%, Atlético Ottawa 70%. Over 2.5: HFX Wanderers FC 45%, Atlético Ottawa 60%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Atlético Ottawa has higher xG: 1.28 vs 0.99. HFX Wanderers FC: 9.0 shots per match, Atlético Ottawa: 10.8.
Match halves
HFX Wanderers FC: half-time lead 9%, second-half goals 0.91. Atlético Ottawa: half-time lead 10%, second-half goals 1.30.
Goals by minute
HFX Wanderers FC: 76-90+ (4 goals). Atlético Ottawa: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Canadian Premier League: 2.80 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-3. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 20%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win ('1'). HFX Wanderers average 2.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded at home, while Atlético Ottawa average 1.0 scored and 2.17 conceded on the road. Hosts average 10.8 shots with 3.6 on target at home and a 19% conversion rate, whereas visitors average 9.0 shots and 2.67 on target with an 11% conversion; xG is 1.3 for HFX vs 1.08 for Ottawa, indicating better home efficiency. Additionally, HFX have 0% shutouts at home and only 20% home losses with a +2 goal difference, while Ottawa have 17% of away matches without scoring, 67% away losses and a -7 away goal difference. Although Ottawa show better form over the last 5 matches overall (2.0 PPG and 11 goals vs HFX’s 1.4 PPG and 7 goals), the quality of chances and home defensive performance favor HFX and should decide the home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Data analysis favors BTTS: seasonal BTTS rates are 75% for HFX and 67% for Atlético versus a league average of 57%, providing a strong initial “yes” signal. HFX scores 2.25 goals on average with xG 1.58 and 13.5 shots (5.5 on target), while Atlético concedes 2.17 goals per match and has xG against 1.61, so the hosts create chances and the visitors struggle defensively. In the last 5 matches Atlético has BTTS at 80% and scores 2.2 goals on average (11 goals), whereas HFX has last5 BTTS of 40% and scores 1.4 goals, giving a mixed short-term signal, but both teams have low clean sheet percentages: 25% and 17%. Based on this I estimate BTTS probability at 72% vs 28% and recommend a “yes” (BTTS - Yes) bet.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG estimate gives 1.60 expected goals for HFX Wanderers (xG attack 1.58 vs Atlético Ottawa defense 1.61) and 1.22 for Atlético Ottawa (xG attack 1.08 vs HFX defense 1.35), totalling 2.82 goals. A Poisson model with mean 2.82 yields an ~77% probability for Over 1.5, corroborated by season Over 1.5 rates: 75% for HFX and 83% for Atlético. Additionally, both teams scored at least once in 75% (HFX) and 67% (Atlético) of matches; hosts average 5.5 shots on target vs 2.67 for visitors with conversion 17% vs 11%, which favors at least two goals in the game. Season Over 2.5 values are 50% (HFX) and 67% (Atlético), and Poisson gives ~54% for Over 2.5, while Over 3.5 is less likely (~31%). Based on these numbers I recommend backing Over 1.5 as the strongest and most reliable signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
HFX Wanderers are clear favorites: at home they win 75% of matches and average 2.5 points per game, scoring 2.25 goals per match versus Atlético Ottawa’s 1.0. In qualitative metrics HFX generate 1.58 xG and concede 1.35 xG, while Ottawa has 1.08 xG and allows 1.61 xG; the hosts average 5.5 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 2.67. At Half-Time HFX score on average 0.5 goals and Ottawa 0.0; the hosts have led at the break in 25% of games and the visitors in 0%, indicating an advantage for HFX after 45 minutes (pick 1-0 HT). Considering the hosts win 75% of matches, the visitors concede on average 2.17 goals and there is a high share of matches with both teams scoring (75% for hosts and 67% for visitors), the most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/1, with X/1 as the second most significant possibility.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| HFX Wanderers FC | Atlético Ottawa | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.44 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atlético Ottawa is 43% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - HFX Wanderers FC · 2 pts / match - Atlético Ottawa
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Atlético Ottawa is 18% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - HFX Wanderers FC · 1.5 goals / match - Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC is 24% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.45 goals / match - HFX Wanderers FC · 1.8 goals / match - Atlético Ottawa
HFX Wanderers FC scores in 73% of matches (8 of 11 matches), while Atlético Ottawa keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
Atlético Ottawa scores in 90% of matches (9 of 10 matches), while HFX Wanderers FC keeps a clean sheet in 18% (2 of 11 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - HFX Wanderers FC
Over / Under - Atlético Ottawa
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
HFX Wanderers FC is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.82 pts / match - HFX Wanderers FC · 0.7 pts / match - Atlético Ottawa
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
HFX Wanderers FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 9% of matches and wins 27%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Atlético Ottawa - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 10% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -4 | +7 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (4 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
HFX Wanderers FC
Atlético Ottawa
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Canadian Premier League).
Teams vs league
| HFX Wanderers FC | Liga | Atlético Ottawa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.73 | 2.80 | ▲ 3.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 59% | ▲ 70% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 45% | 49% | ▲ 60% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 18% | 22% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 64% | 54% | ▲ 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 82% | 88% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): HFX Wanderers FC 1 - 1 - 3 Atlético Ottawa. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 20% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
The Canadian Premier League match finished HFX Wanderers FC 1:3 Atlético Ottawa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between HFX Wanderers FC and Atlético Ottawa?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches HFX Wanderers FC won 1, Atlético Ottawa won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 20% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
HFX Wanderers FC score 1.27 goals per game on average and Atlético Ottawa 1.50. The Canadian Premier League average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 55% of HFX Wanderers FC's matches and 70% of Atlético Ottawa's.
What form are HFX Wanderers FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Over the last 5 games HFX Wanderers FC have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Atlético Ottawa 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
The statistical background for HFX Wanderers FC vs Atlético Ottawa — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.