Hibernian vs Aberdeen: match statistics

Hibernian have a clear edge in chance creation at home, averaging 18 shots and 5 on target per match, compared with Aberdeen’s away averages of 9 and 2.5, respectively. The hosts generate an average xG of 1.89, while the visitors’ defence allows opponents as much as 2.56 xG, which points to a potential breakthrough against their poor away form. Aberdeen have lost both of their away matches so far, failed to score in either, and concede an average of 2.5 goals per game. Hibernian also have defensive issues, conceding 2.5 goals per match at home and failing to keep a clean sheet, but they average 1 goal scored and have found the net in every match. Form over the last five games is only slightly better for the hosts, who have scored 9 goals compared with Aberdeen’s 4, making a Hibernian win in an open game the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Aberdeen’s very poor finishing: in their away matches so far, the team averages 0.0 goals and has failed to score on every occasion. BTTS has occurred in just 0% of Aberdeen’s matches in this sample and in 20% of their last five games, while Hibernian have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their home matches. The hosts should have a good chance of scoring, as Aberdeen concede an average of 2.5 goals away from home, have yet to keep a clean sheet, and their average xG against is a high 2.56. Although Hibernian have conceded an average of 1.8 goals across their last five matches, Aberdeen have scored only 0.8 goals per game during the same period, which reduces the credibility of a scenario involving an away goal. A result with the hosts scoring is possible, but it remains more likely that at least one team—primarily Aberdeen—will fail to score.

Hibernian have averaged 1.8 goals and generated 1.80 xG in their last 5 matches, while Aberdeen have allowed opponents 1.98 xG over the same period, which supports the likelihood of a home goal. The visitors remain less clinical, however: they have yet to score away from home this season, and have averaged just 0.8 goals across their last five matches. Despite Hibernian’s attacking run, both teams have recorded 100% of their season matches below 3.5 goals, while the average number of second-half goals stands at just 1.0 for the hosts and 0.5 for Aberdeen. The estimated total of 2.65 goals points to realistic scorelines of 2:0, 2:1 or 1:1, but limits the prospects of four goals. Under 3.5 goals is therefore the strongest option, supported by both teams’ season results and Aberdeen’s poor finishing.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Hibernian win at full-time. Aberdeen have been level at the break in 80% of their last five matches, scoring an average of zero goals before half-time, which points to a cautious opening. Over the same period, Hibernian scored an average of 1.0 goals before the break but also conceded 1.0, meaning the hosts’ advantage may not be evident after 45 minutes. After the break, Hibernian have a positive goal difference at home, scoring an average of 0.67 goals and conceding just 0.33, while Aberdeen have failed to score in any second half. The hosts’ expected superiority is also supported by a clear quality-of-chances advantage: their xG stands at 1.15, while Aberdeen allow opponents an xG as high as 2.56.