Hibernian vs Hearts: match statistics
Hibernian vs Hearts: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hibernian played Hearts in Premiership (Scotland). The match was played on 26 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Hibernian: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match. Hearts: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hibernian scores 1.55 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. Hearts scores 1.76 and concedes 0.85. League average: 2.74 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hibernian 48%, Hearts 42%. Over 2.5: Hibernian 52%, Hearts 48%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Hearts has higher xG: 1.65 vs 1.47. Hibernian: 12.7 shots per match, Hearts: 14.3.
Match halves
Hibernian: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 0.82. Hearts: half-time lead 39%, second-half goals 1.03.
Goals by minute
Hibernian: 76-90+ (14 goals). Hearts: 76-90+ (15 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Premiership: 2.74 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hibernian holds a slight edge at home: they average 1.88 goals and 1.73 xG in home matches, while Hearts average 1.63 goals and 1.56 xG on the road. The hosts concede only 0.88 goals at home versus 1.13 conceded by Hearts away, and Hibernian records 50% clean sheets at home compared to 38% for Hearts, underlining the hosts’ defensive stability. Hearts, however, are in better recent form over the last 5 matches (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, averaging 2.0 points) than Hibernian (1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss, averaging 1.2 points), suggesting the contest will be closely contested. Hibernian also register more shots (15.25) and more shots on target (5.63) than Hearts away (13.44 shots, 4.69 on target), with an equal conversion rate of 12% and a lower share of shutoutless matches (19% vs 25%). Therefore I forecast a home victory, but expect a tight game in which a draw is also a realistic outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I pick the 'no' scenario (no both teams to score): Hibernian have 59% clean sheets and concede only 0.59 goals per match on average, while Hearts score 1.63 on average, placing more responsibility on Hibernian’s defense. Season BTTS rates are 41% for Hibernian and 44% for Hearts — both below the league average of 51%, so this fixture is statistically less conducive to Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches Hibernian had just 20% BTTS (avg 1.2 scored / 1.0 conceded), and Hearts 40% (1.4 scored / 0.8 conceded), indicating Hibernian limits opponents more often. Additionally xG is 1.73 for Hibernian and 1.56 for Hearts, with xG against 0.97 (Hibernian) versus 1.33 (Hearts), so Hibernian both create more and better neutralize opponent chances; on this basis I assign 70% probability to 'no' and 30% to 'yes'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Hibernian average 1.88 goals per game (xG 1.73), Hearts 1.63 goals (xG 1.56); xG against is 0.97 for Hibernian and 1.33 for Hearts, producing projected match xG of 1.53 for Hibernian and 1.27 for Hearts, total 2.80. The expected goals total of 2.80 is slightly above the league average of 2.74 and implies a high probability of at least 2 goals — Poisson distribution with mean=2.80 gives P(≥2) ≈77%, while season Over 1.5 rates are 65% (Hibernian) and 69% (Hearts). The 2.5 line is more balanced: P(≥3)≈53% and season Over 2.5 are 41%/56%, indicating a moderate signal. The 3.5 line has low probability (~31%), consistent with seasonal 29%/31%, so the strongest and clearest signal from the data is Over 1.5, also supported by shot counts 15.18 and 13.44 and a conversion rate of 12%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Hibernian win 76% of matches at home and average 2.53 points per game compared to Hearts’ 1.69 on the road; the home side’s xG is 1.73 versus the visitors’ 1.56, and average shots on target are 5.41 vs 4.69, giving Hibernian a clear advantage in chance creation. At Half-Time Hibernian led in 7 of 17 matches (41%), while the score was level in 8 of 17 (47%), and hosts concede only 0.24 goals on average before the break versus 0.69 conceded by Hearts, so a draw at Half-Time is slightly more likely than a home lead. Hibernian also have high clean sheet rates (76% at Half-Time and 59% over the full match), which increases the chances of a goalless or level first act and a turnaround in the second half. Considering the above figures and the fact that Hibernian finish matches at home winning 76% of the time, the most sensible scenario is a draw at Half-Time followed by a home victory after 90 minutes (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hibernian | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hearts is 67% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Hibernian · 2 pts / match - Hearts
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hearts is 14% better for: goals scored per match.
1.55 goals / match - Hibernian · 1.76 goals / match - Hearts
Hearts is 32% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - Hibernian · 0.85 goals / match - Hearts
Hibernian scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Hearts keeps a clean sheet in 48% (16 of 33 matches).
Hearts scores in 88% of matches (29 of 33 matches), while Hibernian keeps a clean sheet in 33% (11 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hibernian
Over / Under - Hearts
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hibernian - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Hearts - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 39% of matches and wins 64%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hibernian
Hearts
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Premiership).
Teams vs league
| Hibernian | Liga | Hearts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.67 | 2.74 | ▼ 2.61 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 48% | 51% | ▼ 42% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 52% | 51% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 28% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 73% | 75% | • 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 79% | ▼ 76% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Hibernian 1 - 0 - 2 Hearts. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hibernian vs Hearts?
The Premiership match finished Hibernian 1:2 Hearts. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hibernian and Hearts?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Hibernian won 1, Hearts won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hibernian vs Hearts?
Hibernian score 1.55 goals per game on average and Hearts 1.76. The Premiership average is 2.74 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Hibernian's matches and 42% of Hearts's.
What form are Hibernian and Hearts in?
Over the last 5 games Hibernian have a 1-3-1 record (1.20 points per game) and Hearts 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hibernian vs Hearts?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.