Hillerød vs AB: match statistics

Hillerød are slight favourites thanks to their more effective home performances: they average 2.00 goals per match at home, while AB score 1.50 away from home. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 15.67 shots and 4.67 on target, compared with 13.00 and 4.25 for the visitors, while their xG stands at 1.65 against AB’s 1.52. Hillerød’s recent form is also more stable, having collected 8 points from their last five matches and conceded just 4 goals, whereas AB have lost twice during this period and allowed 7 goals. However, the hosts’ defence remains vulnerable to mistakes, averaging 1.67 goals conceded at home and keeping no clean sheets, so AB have a realistic chance of scoring. Home advantage and greater consistency in chance creation point towards a narrow Hillerød victory.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive: in their last 5 matches, both Hillerød and AB recorded this scenario in 60% of games, averaging 1.8 goals scored per team. Hillerød have failed to keep a clean sheet in every match this season, while their average xG against is a high 1.80, strengthening AB’s chances of scoring. AB create more chances than the hosts, averaging 13.0 shots and 4.25 shots on target per match compared with Hillerød’s 10.67 and 3.67, respectively, and also have a higher offensive xG: 1.52 to 1.28. The risk to the pick is Hillerød’s poor full-season scoring record, with just 0.67 goals per match and no goal in 33% of their games. Nevertheless, AB concede an average of 1.25 goals, while the hosts have scored 9 goals in their last five appearances, making it more likely that both teams will score.

Hillerød have failed to keep a clean sheet in any home match, while their opponents average 1.80 xG, clearly supporting AB’s chances of scoring. AB generate an average of 1.52 xG and record 4.25 shots on target per match, while the hosts concede an average of 1.33 goals. In their last five matches, both teams have scored 1.8 goals per game, while AB matches have averaged 3.2 goals, as the team have conceded 1.4 goals per outing. The 1.5 line has been covered in 100% of Hillerød’s matches so far and in 75% of AB’s games, making Over 1.5 the market with the strongest statistical support. The higher 2.5 line remains realistic, but is limited by Hillerød’s poor seasonal scoring record of just 0.67 goals scored at home.

Hillerød are showing clearly better recent form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 1.8 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded, while AB, despite the same 1.8-goal scoring average, have allowed opponents 1.4 goals per game. The hosts led at the break in three of their last five matches, with a first-half average of 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded; AB conceded an average of 1.0 goal before half-time. AB’s seasonal statistical advantage is limited, even though the visitors average 4.25 shots on target compared with Hillerød’s 3.67, as the hosts have kept a clean sheet before the break in 60% of their last five matches. After half-time, Hillerød averaged 1.0 goal scored and just 0.4 conceded, supporting their ability to preserve a favorable result through to the final whistle. The most likely HT/FT outcome is therefore Hillerød leading at the break and securing the win after 90 minutes: 1/1.