Hillerød vs Fredericia: match statistics

Hillerød have home advantage: they win 50% of their home matches and score an average of 1.75 goals, while Fredericia win 25% of their away matches and average 1.25 goals. In the last five league rounds, the hosts have recorded 2 wins and scored 7 goals, while the visitors have won just once and scored 5. Fredericia remain dangerous, however, averaging 2.34 xG away from home compared with Hillerød’s 1.55 xG at home, even though this has translated into a lower average goal tally. The visitors concede an average of 0.75 goals away from home and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, so breaking down their defence could prove difficult. The hosts’ greater home scoring efficiency and better recent results give them a slight edge over Fredericia’s advantage in the quality of chances created.

The strongest indicator in favor of BTTS - No is defensive efficiency: Hillerød keep a clean sheet in 60% of their home matches, while Fredericia do so in 50% of their away games. The hosts concede an average of 0.6 goals at home, and the visitors 0.75 away, limiting the chances of both teams scoring. Under these conditions, BTTS occurred in 40% and 50% of matches, respectively, although the rates rose to 80% and 60% across the teams’ last five matches. This increase, together with high average attacking xG — 2.65 for the hosts and 2.34 for the visitors — means a goal from either team remains a realistic possibility. However, the home and away data give a slight edge to the scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been breached in 80% of Hillerød's matches and in none of Fredericia's matches. Both teams concede relatively few goals on average—0.6 and 0.75 per match, respectively—which limits the likelihood of a high-scoring game. Hillerød average 1.4 goals scored, while Fredericia average 1.25, so their scoring records to date also point to a moderate total. However, both teams' high xG figures of 2,65 and 2,34, along with the league average of 2,78 goals, call for caution with the lower 2.5 line. Under 3.5 goals is therefore the safer pick than Under 2.5, with a projected total of 2,4 goals.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Hillerød were level at the break in 4 of their 5 home matches, while Fredericia were level at half-time in 2 of 4 away games. First halves were low-scoring, with the hosts averaging 0.2 goals and the visitors 0.25. After the break, the advantage shifts towards Hillerød, who averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded at home, while Fredericia averaged 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded away. The hosts’ case is further supported by an average home xG of 2.65, compared with Fredericia’s away xG of 2.34. Although Hillerød led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches overall, their home results and effectiveness after half-time make a half-time draw followed by a home win the slightly stronger HT/FT scenario.