Hillerød vs Hobro: match statistics

Hobro sit 2nd and have won 4 of their 5 matches this season, while Hillerød are only 11th with a record of 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats. The visitors are highly effective away from home: they have won both of their matches so far, averaging 2 goals scored and just 1 conceded, while the hosts have failed to win any home fixture. Hillerød’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.95 and concedes an average of 2 goals at home, which favours Hobro. However, the hosts create more chances, averaging 17.5 shots and recording an xG of 1.78, so a goal from them is a realistic possibility. Hobro’s advantage comes from their consistency, stronger defence and a 16% shot-conversion rate compared with 9% for Hillerød.

The signal for BTTS - Yes is clear, as both teams have regularly been involved in matches with goals at both ends this season: Hillerød in 67% and Hobro in as many as 100% of their games. Neither team has finished a league match without scoring, while Hobro have yet to keep a single clean sheet. Hobro average 2.00 goals and 4.50 shots on target per match, while Hillerød score 1.33 goals at home, with their opponents allowing an average of 1.00 goal. Hillerød’s last five matches produced a very high average of 4.2 goals scored and an xG of 1.67, although their BTTS rate dropped to 40% during this period due to one-sided results. Both defenses leave space for chances, as confirmed by an xGA of 2.26 for Hillerød and 1.52 for Hobro, making goals from both sides more likely than a No Goal outcome.

Hobro score an average of 2.00 goals per match, while Hillerød concede an average of 1.00, with the visitors’ average xG at 1.49 compared to the 1.57 xG allowed by the hosts. Both teams have scored at least once in 100% of their matches so far, and Hobro have kept no clean sheets. The 2.5 line also offers arguments in favour of the over, as Hillerød matches have gone above it in 67% of cases and Hobro matches in 100%; however, the projected 2.85 goals leave a greater risk of exactly two goals being scored. The strongest signal therefore remains Over 1.5: in their last five matches, Hillerød have scored as many as 4.2 goals per game, while Hobro have recorded Over 2.5 in 80% of such fixtures. At the same time, both teams have 100% of their matches below 3.5 goals in the season data, which limits confidence in the higher lines.

Hillerød held the lead at the break in 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goal before half-time, while Hobro managed just 0.6 first-half goals over the same period. The hosts are also in very strong attacking form: they have averaged 4.2 goals in their last five matches, including as many as 3.2 after the break, while conceding just 0.8 goals in the second half. Hobro remain a formidable opponent, having won 80% of their last five games and averaging 4.5 shots on target per match compared with Hillerød’s 3.33, so turnaround scenarios still account for a significant share. Nevertheless, Hillerød’s superior current scoring form and their 60% rate of leading at half-time primarily support the hosts maintaining their advantage from half-time to full-time.