Hirnyk vs LNZ Cherkasy: match statistics

LNZ Cherkasy sit 2nd in the table with 15 wins this season, while Hirnyk are 6th with 9 wins, which on paper favours the visitors. LNZ’s away defence is very strong — they concede just 0.6 goals per away match and record 70% clean sheets, whereas Hirnyk at home concede 1.0 goal on average and have only 20% clean sheets. Offensively the hosts have some strengths: Hirnyk score 2.0 goals per home game with an average xG of 1.66, 6 shots on target and 13.5 shots overall, while LNZ away average 1.8 goals with xG 1.47 and 4.3 shots on target, with conversion around 15% versus 14%. In the last 5 matches LNZ have scored 8 goals with a 3-1-1 record and average 2.0 points per game, while Hirnyk have 5 goals, a 2-2-1 record and 1.6 points per game, indicating better recent effectiveness from the visitors. Considering LNZ’s clearly superior defence (0.6 vs 1.0 average goals conceded), higher clean sheet rate 70% vs 20% and better recent points return over the last five matches, I forecast a win for the visitors.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are low: Hirnyk has BTTS at 9% and LNZ 30%, versus a league average of 42%. Both teams simultaneously show very high clean sheet rates — home side 73% and visitors 70% — suggesting a large number of matches without conceded goals. Although xG indicates goal-scoring potential (Hirnyk xG 1.68, LNZ xG 1.47), their actual goals averages are 1.09 and 1.8 with conceded averages of 0.55 and 0.6, i.e. effectively low outputs. In the last 5 matches both teams had BTTS 40%, which is higher than Hirnyk’s season (9%) and LNZ’s (30%) but still below or close to the league average; this uptick signal is however weaker than the seasonal clean sheet advantage. Based on this I project No BTTS: probability ~80% for 'No' vs ~20% for 'BTTS - Yes'.

Combining attack xG and opponent xG conceded (Hirnyk xG_for=1.68 vs LNZ xG_for=1.47; xG_against 1.00 and 1.01 respectively) yields expected goals of 1.35 for Hirnyk and 1.24 for LNZ (total 2.59), calculated as the average of team attack xG and opponent defensive xG. This 2.59 total is close to the league average of 2.57 and aligns with the last 5 matches, where Hirnyk scored 5 goals in 5 matches (1.0 avg) and LNZ 8 goals in 5 matches (1.6 avg), supporting a scenario of at least 2 goals in the match. A Poisson model with lambda=2.59 gives probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈73%, Over 2.5 ≈48% and Over 3.5 ≈26%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Offsetting this is Hirnyk’s high clean sheet rate at 73% and low BTTS for the home side at 9%, while season Over 2.5 rates are 18% (Hirnyk) and 40% (LNZ), making Over 2.5 uncertain. Considering the total xG=2.59, the visitors’ superior finishing (conversion rate 14% vs 8% for the home side) and the model outcome, I recommend betting on Over 1.5 as the optimal line.

Statistical analysis indicates an advantage for LNZ: the visitors average 1.8 goals per match versus Hirnyk’s 1.09 and have a higher win rate (80% vs 64%), supporting their likelihood of success. At half-time both teams often take the lead — the hosts led at the break in 6 matches (55%) and the visitors in 6 matches (60%) — but the average goals by half-time are 0.7 for the visitors and 0.55 for the hosts, with the visitors scoring 5 goals in the 31–45 minute interval versus 4 for the hosts. In the second half LNZ’s advantage is clear: the visitors score on average 1.1 goals in second halves versus 0.55 for the hosts, they have 70% of second-half wins (vs 36% for the hosts) and 80% of matches feature at least one goal after the break. Despite the hosts’ higher xG (1.68 vs the visitors’ 1.47), their shot conversion is lower (8% vs 14%), so the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at the break and the visitors winning at full-time (HT/FT 2/2).