HJK vs Ilves: match statistics
HJK vs Ilves: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
HJK played Ilves in Veikkausliiga (Finland). The match was played on 16 May 2026. Final score: 2:2.
Current form
HJK: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Ilves: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
HJK scores 1.29 and concedes 0.57 goals per match. Ilves scores 1.33 and concedes 1.83. League average: 2.18 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: HJK 29%, Ilves 83%. Over 2.5: HJK 29%, Ilves 67%. League level: BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 32%.
xG, shots and style
HJK has higher xG: 1.42 vs 1.12. HJK: 11.9 shots per match, Ilves: 9.3.
Match halves
HJK: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.71. Ilves: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
HJK: 31-45+ (3 goals). Ilves: 0-15 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Veikkausliiga: 2.18 goals per match, BTTS 47%, Over 2.5 32%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-2. Average goals 4.75, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
HJK are the favorites: at home they have won 67% of matches, scoring an average of 1.33 goals and conceding only 0.33 per game, while Ilves have no away wins (0% wins) and concede 2.00 goals per game on the road. The hosts generate more chances — on average 12.67 shots and 4.67 on target per match with xG 1.53 at home — whereas Ilves register only 9.25 shots and 3.00 on target with xG 1.05 away. The visitors, however, scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches and have a higher shot conversion rate (16% vs 11%), which means they can be dangerous if afforded more opportunities, but their defense leaves gaps (6 goals conceded in the last 5 and 0 clean sheets away). Considering HJK’s superiority in quality of chances and defensive solidity (67% clean sheets at home), I give the hosts a 65% chance to win, 20% for a draw and 15% for an Ilves win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Ilves as the away side has BTTS in 100% of this season’s matches, while HJK at home has BTTS in 50% of matches; over the last 5 games these figures are 60% for Ilves and 40% for HJK, which favors a both teams to score scenario. Ilves averages 1.5 goals across the season and 2.0 goals in the last 5 matches, HJK averages 1.0 seasonally and 1.4 in the last 5, and Ilves concedes 2.0 goals seasonally versus 1.5 for HJK, so Ilves both scores and is more defensively vulnerable. xG analysis shows 1.25 xG for HJK versus 1.05 xG for Ilves, but xG against is 1.35 for HJK and 1.87 for Ilves, meaning Ilves allows more expected scoring chances. Additionally, HJK keeps a clean sheet in 50% of season matches, while Ilves has 0% clean sheets away, and shot conversion is 16% for Ilves versus 11% for HJK, which increases the probability that both teams will score. Given Ilves’ 100% away BTTS, 2.0 average goals for Ilves in the last 5 matches and higher xG against of 1.87, I assess BTTS chance at 75% and No BTTS at 25%, hence recommendation: BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model projects HJK at approximately 1.56 goals (home xG 1.25 and xG conceded by Ilves 1.87 → (1.25+1.87)/2=1.56), and Ilves at approximately 1.20 goals (Ilves xG 1.05 and xG conceded by HJK 1.35 → (1.05+1.35)/2=1.20), totaling 2.76 xG. Ilves has 100% of matches over 1.5 goals this season, HJK 50%, and in the last 5 matches Ilves averages 2.0 goals (10 goals) versus HJK 1.4 goals (7 goals), a combined 3.4 goals based on recent form. Ilves also has 75% of matches over 2.5 goals this season vs 50% for HJK, which makes the 2.5 line moderately likely, but the strongest signal remains on Over 1.5. Additionally, BTTS for Ilves is 100% and for HJK 50%, while average shots and conversion rates (shots on target 3.5 vs 3.0, shot conversion 11% vs 16%) support a scenario of at least two goals, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the optimal line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back the 2/1 scenario (Ilves leading at the break, HJK winning) because Ilves frequently takes a lead in the first half but fails to maintain it through full-time. In the last five matches Ilves led at the break in 60% of games (3 of 5) and scored an average of 0.75 goals in the first half, while HJK averaged 0.5 first-half goals. Nevertheless, HJK is stronger over the full match – at home they earn an average of 1.5 points per game and win 50% of matches, whereas Ilves have 0% away wins and only 0.5 points per away game. Additionally, HJK produces 1.25 home xG, while Ilves concedes an average of 1.87 xG per match, and the home side registers an average of 3.5 shots on target versus Ilves’ 3.0, which favors a turnaround after the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| HJK | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
HJK is 60% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - HJK · 1 pts / match - Ilves
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
HJK is 221% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.57 goals / match - HJK · 1.83 goals / match - Ilves
HJK scores in 71% of matches (5 of 7 matches), while Ilves keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
Ilves scores in 100% of matches (6 of 6 matches), while HJK keeps a clean sheet in 43% (3 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - HJK
Over / Under - Ilves
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ilves is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / match - HJK · 1.67 pts / match - Ilves
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
HJK - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 43%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Ilves - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (3 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
HJK
Ilves
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Veikkausliiga).
Teams vs league
| HJK | Liga | Ilves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.86 | 2.18 | ▲ 3.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 29% | 47% | ▲ 83% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 29% | 32% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 43% | 30% | ▼ 17% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 76% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 57% | 74% | ▲ 83% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): HJK 1 - 1 - 2 Ilves. Average goals 4.75, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of HJK vs Ilves?
The Veikkausliiga match finished HJK 2:2 Ilves. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between HJK and Ilves?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches HJK won 1, Ilves won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 4.75 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before HJK vs Ilves?
HJK score 1.29 goals per game on average and Ilves 1.33. The Veikkausliiga average is 2.18 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 32% of games. Both teams score in 29% of HJK's matches and 83% of Ilves's.
What form are HJK and Ilves in?
Over the last 5 games HJK have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Ilves 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for HJK vs Ilves?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for HJK vs Ilves: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.