Hobro vs AaB: match statistics
AaB seems to have the upper hand in this clash despite their weaker recent form. The hosts, Hobro, present very poor home results with only a 20% home win rate and a -5 goal difference. AaB boasts better ball possession stats (54% vs 47%) and a higher average of shots per game (13 vs 11.5). Although the visitors haven't won any of their last 5 matches, their xG metrics (1.46 For vs 1.44 Against) suggest untapped attacking potential. Hobro scores an average of only 1 goal per home match, which, combined with AaB's defensive issues, could lead to a balanced game; however, the quality and experience of the visitors should tip the scales in their favor.
Hobro vs AaB: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hobro played AaB in 1st Division (Denmark). The match was played on 14 March 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Hobro: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. AaB: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hobro scores 1.00 and concedes 1.55 goals per match. AaB scores 1.60 and concedes 1.45. League average: 2.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hobro 50%, AaB 50%. Over 2.5: Hobro 40%, AaB 65%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 57%.
xG, shots and style
AaB has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.33. Hobro: 11.2 shots per match, AaB: 13.4.
Match halves
Hobro: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.50. AaB: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 1.15.
Goals by minute
Hobro: 16-30 (4 goals). AaB: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1st Division: 2.80 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 57%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
AaB seems to have the upper hand in this clash despite their weaker recent form. The hosts, Hobro, present very poor home results with only a 20% home win rate and a -5 goal difference. AaB boasts better ball possession stats (54% vs 47%) and a higher average of shots per game (13 vs 11.5). Although the visitors haven't won any of their last 5 matches, their xG metrics (1.46 For vs 1.44 Against) suggest untapped attacking potential. Hobro scores an average of only 1 goal per home match, which, combined with AaB's defensive issues, could lead to a balanced game; however, the quality and experience of the visitors should tip the scales in their favor.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hobro | AaB | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.23 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Hobro is 133% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Hobro · 0.6 pts / match - AaB
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AaB is 60% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Hobro · 1.6 goals / match - AaB
AaB is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.55 goals / match - Hobro · 1.45 goals / match - AaB
Hobro scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while AaB keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
AaB scores in 70% of matches (14 of 20 matches), while Hobro keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hobro
Over / Under - AaB
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
AaB is 9% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / match - Hobro · 1.2 pts / match - AaB
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hobro - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 20%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
AaB - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 100% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -4 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hobro
AaB
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1st Division).
Teams vs league
| Hobro | Liga | AaB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.55 | 2.80 | ▲ 3.05 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 57% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | • 25% | 24% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 65% | 76% | ▼ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 81% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Hobro 0 - 1 - 0 AaB. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hobro vs AaB?
The 1st Division match finished Hobro 1:0 AaB. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Hobro vs AaB?
Hobro score 1.00 goals per game on average and AaB 1.60. The 1st Division average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 57% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Hobro's matches and 50% of AaB's.
What form are Hobro and AaB in?
Over the last 5 games Hobro have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and AaB 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hobro vs AaB?
The statistical background for Hobro vs AaB — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.