Hoffenheim II vs Jahn Regensburg: match statistics

Jahn Regensburg have a clearly better record in the only away match played so far: they won it, scored 5 goals and recorded a goal difference of +3, while Hoffenheim II lost their home match 2:3. The visitors are significantly more clinical, registering an average of 6 shots on target from 9 attempts per match and converting 56% of their chances, compared with 20% for the hosts. Hoffenheim II generate slightly higher xG at home, 1.33 compared with 1.31, but at the same time allow opponents chances worth 2.13 xG and concede an average of 3 goals per match. Both teams have recorded 2 wins and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches, but Regensburg conceded 6 goals during this period, while Hoffenheim II conceded as many as 9. Neither side has kept a clean sheet, which points towards goals, but the visitors’ superior attacking efficiency gives them a greater chance of winning.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the weak defensive records of both teams: Hoffenheim II have conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last 5 matches, while Regensburg have conceded 1.2, with both sides recording a 0% clean-sheet rate in the seasonal data. The hosts have scored an average of 1.6 goals across their last five games, while the visitors have averaged 1.4, indicating that both teams possess genuine scoring potential. Hoffenheim II also create good chances, averaging 17 shots and recording an xG of 1.71, while Regensburg have registered 6 shots on target per match and an xG of 1.58 in their last five appearances. The historical signal is mixed, as BTTS has landed in 60% of the hosts' last five matches and 40% of the visitors' last five, but the league average of 65%, combined with the attacking potential and lack of clean sheets, tilts the forecast towards the Yes outcome.

The profile of the last five matches points to an open game: Hoffenheim II averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, while Regensburg scored 1.4 and allowed opponents 1.2 goals. The hosts’ defensive weakness is particularly important, with their average xG conceded standing at 1.92, compared with Regensburg’s xG of 1.58. Hoffenheim II averages 17 shots per match, while the visitors record 6 shots on target, providing a solid foundation for at least two goals. In the hosts’ last five matches, the Over 2.5 goals line was surpassed in 60% of cases, while the league average is a high 3.7 goals. The strongest signal remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected 3.15 goals provides a significant margin of safety even if one side is less clinical.

The strongest signal points to Jahn Regensburg leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until the final whistle: in the available sample, the visitors won 100% of their matches, scoring an average of 5.0 goals and conceding 2.0. Regensburg led at half-time in 100% of their games, scored an average of 2.0 goals before the break, and did not concede during that period. Hoffenheim II have yet to score in this sample, lost 100% of their matches, and continue to average 0.0 goals after half-time, while the visitors add as many as 3.0 goals. The hosts do create more attempts, averaging 17 compared with 9, but Regensburg register 6 shots on target per match versus 4 for their opponents and have a significantly higher finishing efficiency of 56%. The last five matches have been more evenly balanced, but the visitors’ advantage in the Half-Time/Full-Time data and their high goal production make the 2/2 outcome the most likely.