Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: match statistics
Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Hoffenheim played Hamburger SV in Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 10 October 2026. Venue: PreZero Arena. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
Hoffenheim: 1-0-3, 0.75 points/match. Hamburger SV: 1-0-3, 0.75 points/match.
Goal statistics
Hoffenheim scores 1.75 and concedes 2.50 goals per match. Hamburger SV scores 0.50 and concedes 3.25. League average: 3.81 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Hoffenheim 100%, Hamburger SV 25%. Over 2.5: Hoffenheim 100%, Hamburger SV 75%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 78%.
xG, shots and style
Hoffenheim has higher xG: 2.06 vs 1.08. Hoffenheim: 19.0 shots per match, Hamburger SV: 9.5.
Match halves
Hoffenheim: half-time lead 75%, second-half goals 1.00. Hamburger SV: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
Hoffenheim: 46-60 (2 goals). Hamburger SV: 31-45+ (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 3.81 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 78%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Hoffenheim have a clear attacking edge at home, averaging 2 goals and 7 shots on target per match, while Hamburger SV have yet to score away from home and average 3.5 shots on target. The quality of chances also favors the hosts: their home xG is 2.16, compared with the visitors’ away xG of 1.09. Hamburger SV’s defense concedes an average of 2.08 xG away from home and 3.5 goals per match, increasing Hoffenheim’s chances of capitalizing on their advantage. The hosts are not entirely reliable defensively, however, conceding an average of 2 goals at home and losing four of their last five matches. The visitors have won their last two games but lost both of their away matches so far, making a Hoffenheim win the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest case for BTTS - No is Hamburger SV’s away scoring record: an average of 0 goals scored and no goals in 100% of their away matches so far. Over their last five matches, the visitors have averaged 0.8 goals, with both teams scoring in just 20% of their games, compared with 80% for Hoffenheim. The hosts concede an average of 3 goals at home, so a Hamburg goal remains a realistic possibility, particularly given their away xG of 1.09. Even so, the visitors’ ongoing away scoring problems outweigh Hoffenheim’s defensive frailties, making it slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
In their last 5 matches, Hoffenheim averaged 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, while Hamburger SV averaged 0.8 scored and 2.6 conceded, pointing to clear defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Hoffenheim created chances worth 2.22 xG per match over this period, while their opponents averaged 1.72 xG against Hamburger SV. The Over 2.5 goals line was hit in 80% of Hoffenheim’s last 5 matches and 60% of Hamburger SV’s, although the visitors’ lower scoring output makes a higher-scoring game less certain. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been hit in 100% of Hoffenheim’s home matches and Hamburger SV’s away matches to date, with the projected total standing at 3.35 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal for Hoffenheim to lead at the break comes from Hamburger SV’s away record: the visitors were trailing at half-time in both of their matches so far and failed to score in either. Hoffenheim led at the break in 1 of 2 home games, and in their recent matches they averaged 0.5 goals before half-time compared with the visitors’ 0.2. Hamburger SV’s average of 3.5 goals conceded away from home and Hoffenheim’s 1.4 goals scored per game across their last five matches also support the lead being maintained, so I favour the 1/1 scenario in the HT/FT market. This is not a risk-free pick, however: the hosts concede an average of 3 goals at home, while the visitors have won 2 of their last 5 matches, so a turnaround remains a realistic possibility. The small sample of two home and two away matches further limits confidence in the forecast.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Hoffenheim | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.13 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Hoffenheim is 250% better for: goals scored per match.
1.75 goals / match - Hoffenheim · 0.5 goals / match - Hamburger SV
Hoffenheim is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.5 goals / match - Hoffenheim · 3.25 goals / match - Hamburger SV
Hoffenheim scores in 100% of matches (4 of 4 matches), while Hamburger SV keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 matches).
Hamburger SV scores in 25% of matches (1 of 4 matches), while Hoffenheim keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Hoffenheim
Over / Under - Hamburger SV
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Hoffenheim is 200% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.25 pts / match - Hoffenheim · 0.75 pts / match - Hamburger SV
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Hoffenheim - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 75% of matches and wins 25%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Hamburger SV - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.25 | 0.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.5 | 2.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 3.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 75% | 0% |
| No goal | 25% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 75% |
| 2 goals | 75% | 75% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 25% | 25% |
| No goal | 75% | 75% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Hoffenheim
Hamburger SV
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Hoffenheim | Liga | Hamburger SV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.25 | 3.81 | • 3.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 100% | 59% | ▼ 25% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 100% | 78% | ▼ 75% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 0% | 24% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 86% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 86% | ▼ 75% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Hoffenheim 2 - 0 - 0 Hamburger SV. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
The Bundesliga match finished Hoffenheim 2:3 Hamburger SV. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Hoffenheim won 2, Hamburger SV won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Hoffenheim score 1.75 goals per game on average and Hamburger SV 0.50. The Bundesliga average is 3.81 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 78% of games. Both teams score in 100% of Hoffenheim's matches and 25% of Hamburger SV's.
What form are Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV in?
Over the last 5 games Hoffenheim have a 1-0-3 record (0.75 points per game) and Hamburger SV 1-0-3 (0.75 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
The statistical background for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.