Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: match statistics

Hoffenheim have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals in the process, while Schalke have failed to win any and have scored just 1 goal. At home, Hoffenheim average 2.25 goals per match and create chances worth 2.05 xG, while Schalke concede 2.03 xG on the road. Hoffenheim’s attacking edge is also reflected in their average of 6 shots on target at home, compared with Schalke’s 4.25 away. Although the hosts concede an average of 1.75 goals at home and have lost half of those matches, the visitors have failed to score in 50% of their away games. Given the gap in recent results and chance quality, a Hoffenheim win is the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Schalke’s attacking form: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, an average of 0.2 per game. Hoffenheim conceded an average of 0.8 goals over this period and kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, making it even harder for the visitors to score. On the other hand, the hosts have recently averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Schalke have conceded 1.4, so a scenario in which the hosts fail to score seems less likely. Although the league-wide rate of matches with goals from both teams is 57%, the figure was 40% in Hoffenheim’s last 5 matches and just 20% in Schalke’s. Therefore, the more likely scenario is that Hoffenheim score while Schalke fail to find the net. BTTS - No means that at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team scores.

Hoffenheim averaged 1.8 goals scored over their last five matches, with an xG of 1.87, while Schalke conceded 1.4 goals per game, giving the hosts a clear attacking edge. However, the visitors scored just 1 goal during this period and averaged 0.90 xG, so it is difficult to expect Schalke to contribute significantly to the total. Hoffenheim’s home-game data is more conservative: no more than 2 goals were scored in 100% of those matches, although at least 3 goals were scored in 60% of the team’s last five games regardless of venue. With a projected total of 2.45 goals, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick, despite the league average of 3.5 goals per game.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: in their last five matches, both teams went into the break level on three occasions. Hoffenheim have improved their results over this period, winning three of five matches and averaging 1.8 goals, while Schalke have not won a single game and have averaged 0.2 goals. Hoffenheim’s average of 1.2 goals scored in the second halves of their last five matches, compared with Schalke’s 0 over the same period, supports a home win after the break. However, the X/1 pick is tempered by the fact that Hoffenheim failed to score in any of the four home matches considered, making a goalless draw a significant alternative.