Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern: match statistics
Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Holstein Kiel played Kaiserslautern in 2. Bundesliga (Germany). The match was played on 17 April 2026. Final score: 3:0.
Current form
Holstein Kiel: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Kaiserslautern: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Holstein Kiel scores 1.24 and concedes 1.48 goals per match. Kaiserslautern scores 1.69 and concedes 1.41. League average: 2.91 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Holstein Kiel 66%, Kaiserslautern 55%. Over 2.5: Holstein Kiel 52%, Kaiserslautern 66%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Kaiserslautern has higher xG: 1.49 vs 1.31. Holstein Kiel: 12.2 shots per match, Kaiserslautern: 13.4.
Match halves
Holstein Kiel: half-time lead 28%, second-half goals 0.66. Kaiserslautern: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 1.00.
Goals by minute
Holstein Kiel: 31-45+ (8 goals). Kaiserslautern: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
2. Bundesliga: 2.91 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 5.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the home win: Holstein Kiel average xG 1.46 at home, attempt 13.29 shots per game with 4 on target, while Kaiserslautern away have xG 1.20 and 11 shots per game. Defensively Holstein concede 1.14 goals per home match with xG against 1.37, whereas the visitors concede 1.71 goals away with xG against 1.82, indicating greater vulnerability for Kaiserslautern on the road. Kaiserslautern have more goals this season (49 vs 36) and have scored 9 goals in the last 5 matches compared to the hosts’ 7, and they record higher PPG in the last 5 (1.8 vs 1.4). Additionally, the visitors fail to score in 43% of away games versus only 21% for the hosts, and their away goal difference is -8, suggesting instability. Considering Holstein’s superiority in possession (54% vs 45%), higher shot volume (13.29 vs 11) and more stable home defense, I expect a narrow home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Holstein Kiel averages 2.2 goals scored per match this season (xG 1.77) and records BTTS in 67% of home games; the hosts average 15.73 shots and 6.0 on target with a conversion rate of 14%. Kaiserslautern away average is 1.14 goals scored and 1.71 conceded, season BTTS 43% (but only 20% in the last 5 matches), they average 11.0 shots with 3.57 on target and have xG for 1.20 versus xG against 1.82. In the last 5 fixtures Kiel scored 1.4 and conceded 1.6 (7 goals in 5), while Kaiserslautern scored 1.8 and conceded 1.2 (9 goals in 5), indicating the visitors have recently been able to find the net. Additionally, the league BTTS rate is 59%, hosts keep a clean sheet in only 27% of matches, and Holstein have 73% of matches over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of those games, so the trend supports a both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this, I indicate BTTS - Yes as the best pick with a probability of 72% versus 28% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
An xG-based model (average attacking xG vs opponent defensive xG) yields expected xG of 1.80 for Holstein Kiel and 1.27 for Kaiserslautern, totaling 3.07 expected goals. Under a Poisson distribution with λ=3.07 the probability of Over 1.5 is ~81% (P(0)+P(1)≈19%), Over 2.5 ~59% (P(0–2)≈41%), and Over 3.5 ~37% (P(0–3)≈63%). Seasonal data reinforce this conclusion: Holstein has 80% of matches Over 1.5 and 73% Over 2.5, Kaiserslautern 79% and 57% respectively, which together favor a result above 1.5 goals. Holstein averages 6.0 shots on target and 15.73 shots per match with a 14% conversion rate; Kaiserslautern 3.57 shots on target and 11.0 shots with a 10% conversion rate; both teams have matches with both teams scoring in 67% and 43% of games this season, indicating realistic chances for multiple goals. Consequently the strongest and most justified selection is Over 1.5 (side: "over", line: 1.5), as the high expected total of 3.07 and seasonal 80%/79% figures for both teams provide a clear edge for this line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Holstein Kiel led at the break in 6 of 15 matches this season (40%) and won 67% of fixtures (10 of 15), indicating strong home effectiveness. The hosts score an average of 2.20 goals per game versus Kaiserslautern’s 1.14, have a higher xG of 1.77 compared to 1.20 and register on average 6.0 shots on target versus the visitors’ 3.57, so their chance-creation advantage is clear. At Half-Time Kiel averages 0.93 goals scored and 0.47 conceded, while in the second half they score 1.27 and concede 0.67, suggesting a pronounced ability to convert draws at the break into wins after the interval. On this basis the most likely scenario is a HT/FT lead at the break and final victory for the home side (1/1, 33%), with the second-strongest signal being a draw at the break followed by a Kiel turnaround to win (X/1, 27%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Holstein Kiel | Kaiserslautern | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Kaiserslautern is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Holstein Kiel · 1.8 pts / match - Kaiserslautern
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Kaiserslautern is 36% better for: goals scored per match.
1.24 goals / match - Holstein Kiel · 1.69 goals / match - Kaiserslautern
Kaiserslautern is 5% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.48 goals / match - Holstein Kiel · 1.41 goals / match - Kaiserslautern
Holstein Kiel scores in 83% of matches (24 of 29 matches), while Kaiserslautern keeps a clean sheet in 24% (7 of 29 matches).
Kaiserslautern scores in 76% of matches (22 of 29 matches), while Holstein Kiel keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Holstein Kiel
Over / Under - Kaiserslautern
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Kaiserslautern is 8% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.28 pts / match - Holstein Kiel · 1.38 pts / match - Kaiserslautern
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Holstein Kiel - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 28% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Kaiserslautern - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Holstein Kiel
Kaiserslautern
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (2. Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Holstein Kiel | Liga | Kaiserslautern | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.72 | 2.91 | ▲ 3.10 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 66% | 59% | ▼ 55% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 52% | 58% | ▲ 66% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 23% | • 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 66% | 69% | ▼ 66% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 83% | 85% | • 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Holstein Kiel 0 - 0 - 1 Kaiserslautern. Average goals 5.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern?
The 2. Bundesliga match finished Holstein Kiel 3:0 Kaiserslautern. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern?
Holstein Kiel score 1.24 goals per game on average and Kaiserslautern 1.69. The 2. Bundesliga average is 2.91 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 66% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 55% of Kaiserslautern's.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Kaiserslautern in?
Over the last 5 games Holstein Kiel have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Kaiserslautern 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern?
The statistical background for Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.