Wales - Welsh Premier LeagueHalkyn RoadData current as of 19 October 2026

Holywell vs Penybont: match statistics

Reasoning:

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Holywell vs Penybont: form, goals and key statistics

Key match information

Holywell play Penybont in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match date is 23 October 2026. Venue: Halkyn Road.

Current form

Holywell: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match. Penybont: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.

Goal statistics

Holywell scores 1.08 and concedes 3.38 goals per match. Penybont scores 1.92 and concedes 0.85. League average: 3.29 goals.

BTTS / Over / Under

BTTS: Holywell 85%, Penybont 62%. Over 2.5: Holywell 77%, Penybont 62%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 61%.

xG, shots and style

Penybont has higher xG: 1.47 vs 1.11. Holywell: 9.3 shots per match, Penybont: 11.2.

Match halves

Holywell: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.46. Penybont: half-time lead 62%, second-half goals 0.62.

Goals by minute

Holywell: 31-45+ (4 goals). Penybont: 31-45+ (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.

League context

Welsh Premier League: 3.29 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 61%.

Head-to-head

No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.

Before the match

1X2 odds

(8.00)
(4.90)
(1.31)

Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?

This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.

1.08Goals scored / match1.92
HolywellPenybont
3.38Goals conceded / match0.85
HolywellPenybont
42%Average possession57%
HolywellPenybont
3.69Shots on target / match5.15
HolywellPenybont

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.

9.31Shots per match11.23
HolywellPenybont
3.69Shots on target5.15
HolywellPenybont
11.6%Shot conversion17.1%
HolywellPenybont
42%Possession57%
HolywellPenybont
1.11xG for1.47
HolywellPenybont
1.88xG against1.14
HolywellPenybont

Shooting quality

Holywell: BalancedPenybont: Efficient finishing
HolywellPenybont
Accuracy (shots on target)40%46%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.120.13
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.290.37

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.

Penybont is 1100% better for: last-5 form.

0.2 pts / match - Holywell · 2.4 pts / match - Penybont

Holywell
LLDLL
No win in the last 5 matches
Season result split
0% W15% D85% L
Season (W-D-L)
0-2-11
0.15 pts / match · goal difference -30
Last 5 (W-D-L)
0-1-4
0.20 pts / match
Record at home (W-D-L)
0-2-5
Last 5 at home
0-2-3
LDLDL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 0.6Goals conceded: 3.0xG: 1.06Opponent xG: 1.86BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%
Penybont
WWWLW
Season result split
69% W23% D8% L
Season (W-D-L)
9-3-1
2.31 pts / match · goal difference +14
Last 5 (W-D-L)
4-0-1
2.40 pts / match
Record away (W-D-L)
4-1-1
Last 5 away
3-1-1
WDWWL
Last 5 matches - averages
Goals scored: 2.6Goals conceded: 1.2xG: 1.62Opponent xG: 1.15BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 80%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Penybont is 78% better for: goals scored per match.

1.08 goals / match - Holywell · 1.92 goals / match - Penybont

Penybont is 298% better for: goals conceded per match.

3.38 goals / match - Holywell · 0.85 goals / match - Penybont

Holywell scoring profile: very strong

Holywell scores in 85% of matches (11 of 13 matches), while Penybont keeps a clean sheet in 31% (4 of 13 matches).

Penybont scoring profile: very strong

Penybont scores in 85% of matches (11 of 13 matches), while Holywell keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 13 matches).

14Goals scored (season)25
HolywellPenybont
44Goals conceded (season)11
HolywellPenybont
4.46Average goals in match2.77
HolywellPenybont
3Goals scored (last 5)13
HolywellPenybont
15Goals conceded (last 5)6
HolywellPenybont

How often they score at least...

85%1 goal85%
HolywellPenybont
15%2 goals62%
HolywellPenybont
8%3 goals31%
HolywellPenybont
0%4 goals8%
HolywellPenybont

How often they concede at least...

100%1 goal69%
HolywellPenybont
77%2 goals15%
HolywellPenybont
62%3 goals0%
HolywellPenybont
38%4 goals0%
HolywellPenybont

* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.

52%
League average

Goal patterns

54%BTTS at half-time31%
HolywellPenybont
15%BTTS in both halves8%
HolywellPenybont
15%Scored in both halves38%
HolywellPenybont

BTTS and goal count

69%Min. 3 goals and BTTS54%
HolywellPenybont
8%Min. 3 goals without BTTS8%
HolywellPenybont
60%BTTS - last 580%
HolywellPenybont

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?

How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.

1st half

92%Min. 1 goal before half-time77%
HolywellPenybont
69%Min. 2 goals before half-time46%
HolywellPenybont
38%Min. 3 goals before half-time31%
HolywellPenybont

2nd half

77%Min. 1 goal after half-time77%
HolywellPenybont
62%Min. 2 goals after half-time31%
HolywellPenybont
31%Min. 3 goals after half-time0%
HolywellPenybont

Match halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Penybont is 247% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

0.62 pts / match - Holywell · 2.15 pts / match - Penybont

Holywell - half-time state
8% leading38% draw54% trailing
Penybont - half-time state
62% leading31% draw8% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

0.62Points per match (1st half)2.15
HolywellPenybont
0.62Goals scored (1st half)1.31
HolywellPenybont
1.77Goals conceded (1st half)0.38
HolywellPenybont
2.38Average goals (1st half)1.69
HolywellPenybont
15%Clean sheet before half-time62%
HolywellPenybont
38%No goal before half-time31%
HolywellPenybont

After half-time (2nd half)

0.46Points per match (2nd half)1.38
HolywellPenybont
0.46Goals scored (2nd half)0.62
HolywellPenybont
1.62Goals conceded (2nd half)0.46
HolywellPenybont
2.08Average goals (2nd half)1.08
HolywellPenybont
23%Clean sheet after half-time54%
HolywellPenybont
62%No goal after half-time46%
HolywellPenybont

Holywell - second-half results

0% W46% D54% L
8
Half-time points
8
Half-time goals
-15
Goal difference (1st half)
6
Second-half points
-15
Goal difference (2nd half)
0.62
PPG before half-time
Lead holding0%

Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 0%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.

Defence after half-time-0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Penybont - second-half results

31% W46% D23% L
28
Half-time points
17
Half-time goals
+12
Goal difference (1st half)
18
Second-half points
+2
Goal difference (2nd half)
2.15
PPG before half-time
Lead holding111%

Leads at half-time in 62% of matches and wins 69%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.

Defence after half-time+0.1

Defence stays stable across the full match.

Holywell - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match1.000.40
Goals scored / match0.60.0
Goals conceded / match1.61.4
Average goals in match2.21.4
1 goal100%60%
2 goals60%20%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet20%40%
No goal40%100%
Goal difference-5-7
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 0% won - 40% draw - 60% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 3
Penybont - last 5 matches by half
1st half2nd half
Points per match2.001.40
Goals scored / match1.80.8
Goals conceded / match0.60.6
Average goals in match2.41.4
1 goal80%100%
2 goals60%40%
3 goals60%0%
Clean sheet40%40%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference+6+1
Half-time: 60% leading - 20% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 20% draw - 40% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 9

* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.

Holywell
ScoredConceded
1
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
4
14
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
10
61-75
2
7
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (14). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.

Penybont
ScoredConceded
3
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
11
0
31-45
3
0
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
5
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.

Match profile

3.62
Estimated goals
attack vs opponent defence
1.0 : 2.6
Estimated goal split
home : away
110%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
74%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-100%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
72%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
2%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 50 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs defence on both sides

Holywell

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.77
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-1.53
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-1.6 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.03
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
-1.50
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
61%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
224%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.05
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.2
Late goals
14% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 7% come in the first quarter-hour.
14%

Penybont

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.33
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.74
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-2.7 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.45
Defensive efficiency
Does the defence or goalkeeper save the team? Positive means it concedes less than the chances allowed suggest.
+0.29
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
127%
Defence vs league
How much the team concedes compared with the league average. 80% means 20% fewer goals conceded.
48%
Form trend
Compares points from the last 5 matches with the whole-season average.
+0.09
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.7
Late goals
16% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 12% come in the first quarter-hour.
16%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).

Teams vs league

HolywellLigaPenybont
Average goals in match▲ 4.463.29▼ 2.77
Both teams scored▲ 85%52%▲ 62%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 77%61%• 62%
Clean sheets▼ 0%25%▲ 31%
Goal before half-time▲ 92%79%▼ 77%
Goal after half-time▼ 77%85%▼ 77%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

3.29
Average goals per match
52%
Both teams scored
61%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
25%
Clean sheets
1.78
Home goals / match
1.51
Away goals / match
+18%
Home attack advantage
+15%
Home defence advantage
+12%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
79%
1 goal
40%
2 goals
22%
3 goals
10%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
85%
1 goal
51%
2 goals
25%
3 goals
12%
4 goals

FAQ

When do Holywell and Penybont play?

Holywell face Penybont on 23 October 2026 in Welsh Premier League at Halkyn Road. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What do the goal statistics show before Holywell vs Penybont?

Holywell score 1.08 goals per game on average and Penybont 1.92. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.29 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 61% of games. Both teams score in 85% of Holywell's matches and 62% of Penybont's.

What form are Holywell and Penybont in?

Over the last 5 games Holywell have a 0-1-4 record (0.20 points per game) and Penybont 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Holywell vs Penybont?

Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Holywell vs Penybont: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.